Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 12
Week 11 is complete. Things have started to stabilize a little bit more. We’re starting to fully understand What these teams are. Then again, there are some basement dwellers that have won a couple straight (Dolphins) and some perennial favorites that are ready to be buried (Chiefs). So what do we really know? Let’s hash it out!
1. Los Angeles Rams (8-2) (Last Week: 1) – This is the most impressive team in the league, bar none. The fact that they aren’t the unanimous favorite amongst all platforms is flat out wrong.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) (Last Week: 2) – At least to me, they’re solidly the number two team in the league. Nothing they do is super impressive. But they keep making games ugly and then winning them.
3. New England Patriots (9-2) (Last Week: 5) – They deserve the jump. Winners of eight straight. Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. I’m just waiting (or hoping) for the bubble to burst.
4. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) (Last Week: 3) – They didn’t do anything wrong in their bye week to deserve the drop. The Patriots are just the flavor of the week.
5. Denver Broncos (9-2) (Last Week: 7) – They’re atop the AFC. I don’t think their way of winning is completely sustainable, but they are a great team. They deserve top five.
6. Seattle Seahawks (7-3) (Last Week: 4) – Dropping them a little bit. Only because they lost, but it was to the best team in the league. So I can’t really hold that against them.
7. Buffalo Bills (7-3) (Last Week: 9) – The Bills opened up their offense. They need to keep playing with that kind of reckless abandon. If they do, they should keep moving up this board.
8. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) (Last Week: 12) – They won against the Giants in not very convincing fashion. But so many more teams are a lot more underwhelming than them.
9. Detroit Lions (6-4) (Last Week: 6) – How is this team with this amount of talent 6-4? Turns out the loss of Ben Johnson was bigger than anticipated.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (Last Week: 8) – This team is extremely injured. And when they get healthy, I could see them as a serious Super Bowl contender.
11. Chicago Bears (7-3) (Last Week: 13) – It hasn’t been the most impressive 7-3. But 7-3 is 7-3. And I don’t think the league is ready for the Bears to be good again.
12. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) (Last Week: 14) – Kyle Shanahan always has his team in the running, regardless of who the quarterback is. And Brock Purdy is back now.
13 Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) (Last Week: 11) – It brings me so much joy to push them down this far. And I know I’m supposed to root for them against the Colts – I don’t think my body will physically allow me to. I want the Colts to bury them.
14. Baltimore Ravens (5-5) (Last Week: 16) – They’re coming back. The Steelers are in their sights. Just as expected. They would’ve been higher if not for an ugly win against the lowly Browns.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) (Last Week: 17) – What an impressive win against the Chargers. They’ll lose a stupid one soon to make up for it though.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) (Last Week: 15) – They have to just be staring at their rearview mirror waiting for the Ravens to catch them. Especially now that Rodgers is hurt. Scary times.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) (Last Week: 10) – Chargers gonna Charger. What a rough loss to the Jaguars. After all, can’t make it too hard on the Chiefs, right?
18. Houston Texans (5-5) (Last Week: 18) – A dogfight win against the Titans. Their defense is the one thing that’s keeping them in games. And it’s good enough to beat anyone in the league. Including the Bills.
19. Carolina Panthers (6-5) (Last Week: 19) – A three point win this week against the Falcons is unfortunately not enough to get me to move them out of this spot.
20. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) (Last Week: 20) – Can anybody else play quarterback? It doesn’t feel like a stretch to think this is a competitive team with literally anybody else.
21. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) (Last Week: 21) – Even after a dominant win over the Raiders, it’s not enough to get me to move them. Get a defense and then we’ll talk.
22. Miami Dolphins (4-7) (Last Week: 26) – I know they only beat the Commanders this week, and it was only by three points, but two straight, and at least one of them was impressive.
23. Arizona Cardinals (3-7) (Last Week: 22) – Getting blown out always results in you dropping spots. I just can’t put them below any of the teams that are frequenting this area of the list.
24. Atlanta Falcons (3-7) (Last Week: 23) – Every game that they play is close. They just can’t seem to win any of them. Especially now that Penix is out for the rest of the year.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) (Last Week: 24) – They need Joe Burrow back so bad. And they’re going to get it. But is there a point? It’s far too late to make any kind of a run.
26. Washington Commanders (3-8) (Last Week: 25) – They lost to the Dolphins. Not that I, a Bills fan, can talk. But still. They lost to the Dolphins - who only scored 16 points.
27. New York Giants (2-9) (Last Week: 27) – Winston is always a fun watch. But 2-9 is 2-9 and seeing them win a game the rest of the way will be a surprise.
28. New Orleans Saints (2-9) (Last Week: 28) – They continue to lose. They’re going to continue to lose. And they need a real life quarterback in the worst way.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) (Last Week: 30) – They lost to the Cowboys. But they still looked better than the Jets. So they get to move up a spot.
30. Cleveland Browns (2-8) (Last Week: 31) – They lost to the Ravens. But they still looked better than the Jets. So they get to move up a spot.
31. New York Jets (2-8) (Last Week: 29) – They lost to the Patriots. And Justin Fields looked so incompetent that they’re moving to Tyrod Taylor. But they’re not the Titans. So 31 it is.
32. Tennessee Titans (1-9) (Last Week: 32) – They are the Titans.
Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 11
Week 10. We should have a pretty good grasp on the league by now. But it somehow feels like we don’t? I’m not sure what that’s about. But none of the teams we are normally confident in are looking like their past dominant selves. And there are many teams that most would assume are pretenders that we are waiting for to fall off. Yet that hasn’t happened yet. So let’s rank them all!
1. Los Angeles Rams (7-2) (Last Week: 1) – I’ve talked about Matthew Stafford in this every single week that I’ve done it. And he deserves it. As do the Rams. The clear top team in the league, to me.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) (Last Week: 3) – It wasn’t the most convincing win. But the Bills lost and the Eagles won. So they move up to the 2 spot.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) (Last Week: 4) – They’ve shown some weak spots the past two weeks. But Jonathan Taylor is still an animal. And you can basically just re-read what I wrote about the Eagles.
4. Seattle Seahawks (7-2) (Last Week: 6) – Has any team looked more impressive as of late? The Seahawks are a wagon.
5. New England Patriots (8-2) (Last Week: 8) – It’s unfortunate but the Patriots are also a wagon. And look like they could easily win the AFC East.
6. Detroit Lions (6-3) (Last Week: 9) – Time to get the most complete team in football back on the rails. Don’t let them catch fire.
7. Denver Broncos (8-2) (Last Week: 7) – They keep winning but never really do anything to impress me. As a result, I can’t move them up or down. They’ll stay here.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) (Last Week: 5) – I think we all were hoping that they would show up against the Patriots. Now we have to hope they lay an egg this week.
9. Buffalo Bills (6-3) (Last Week: 2) – Second straight week of the number 2 team dropping to the 9 spot. We thought they figured it out. They very clearly didn’t. Time to cross our fingers again.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) (Last Week: 14) – Herbert is taking a ton of hits. But they won again. And continue to hold the Chiefs at bay
11. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (Last Week: 11) – I can’t consciously demote them on the bye week. As much as I want to, anything lower than this would be lying to myself.
12. Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) (Last Week: 10) – Their defense looks elite. Like, scary elite. But they just can’t get anything going offensively. And have a mediocre record to show for it.
13. Chicago Bears (6-3) (Last Week: 16) – Ben Johnson is a good coach. And the Bears are showing competence as a result. Just not greatness.
14. San Fransisco 49ers (6-4) (Last Week: 13) – I don’t have much of a change with them. They find a way to be good regardless of situation. They’ll be in it down the stretch.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) (Last Week: 12) – A winning record but woooooooof Aaron Rodgers. They’ll finish 9-8 and likely miss the playoffs. They’re not winning that division.
16. Baltimore Ravens (4-5) (Last Week: 19) – They have the majority of their team back from injury and are a game back in the division. Spoiler: they’re going to take it from the Steelers.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) (Last Week: 15) – We can continue taking shots in the dark about whether this is a serious football team or not. They’re middle of the pack for a reason.
18. Houston Texans (4-5) (Last Week: 20) – They’re defense is what is winning them games. It’s something that can result in them crashing just about anybody’s party. Don’t take them lightly.
19. Carolina Panthers (5-5) (Last Week: 17) – Is losing to the Saints worse than losing to the Dolphins? Probably.
20. Minnesota Vikings (4-5) (Last Week: 18) – J.J. McCarthy is an agent of chaos. I wouldn’t bet on this team with somebody else’s money. Because who knows what you’re getting?
21. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (Last Week: 22) – It’s a bye week. And, although their defense will still be atrocious, at least Jerry traded for some pieces.
22. Arizona Cardinals (3-6) (Last Week: 21) – Moving them down a spot because of the L. They’re not terrible. But they’re definitely not good.
23. Atlanta Falcons (3-6) (Last Week: 23) – Same thing as the Cardinals. They’re not good. But definitely not the worst in the league. Standing pat, here.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (Last Week: 25) – Joe Flacco may just get them through. Rumors are circulating that Joe Burrow may return for week 13. But it also may be too late.
25. Washington Commanders (3-7) (Last Week: 24) – Marcus Mariota will not win this team games. Without Jayden Daniels, they are lost.
26. Miami Dolphins (3-7) (Last Week: 28) – They showed up to absolutely dismantle the Bills in between firing their GM last week, and more front office personnel this week.
27. New York Giants (2-8) (Last Week: 26) – Jaxson Dart still looks like he could be decent. They got some bad injury luck this year, as well. But now, Brian Daboll is out as head coach.
28. New Orleans Saints (2-8) (Last Week: 31) – They haven’t done anything to deserve this jump. Other teams just look worse.
29. New York Jets (2-7) (Last Week: 30) – You won a game! Congratulations! It was against the Browns though, so we’re only going to move you up one spot.
30. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) (Last Week: 27) – They lost to the Broncos. Not the worst loss in the world. But they lost 10-7. You can’t even put up double digits? Yikes.
31. Cleveland Browns (2-7) (Last Week: 29) – Do I really have to say more here than they lost to the Jets? They’re eagerly awaiting Deshaun Watson’s return.
32. Tennessee Titans (1-8) (Last Week: 32) – Any sliver of doubt that they are the worst team in football is now gone. It’s undisputed. Unanimous. The. Worst. Team. In. Football.
It Shouldn’t Be This Difficult
Bills are embarrassed on the road by hapless Miami Dolphins team, 30-13.
Normally in my Bills recaps, I had planned on sticking to the same format week in and week out. The Good, The Bad, My Take. I also try to focus on the one game from that week. It works because, even in massive wins and terrible losses, I can apply each of those statements without too much trouble. This time, I’m not putting anything good in here. They simply don’t deserve it. And I would have to look way too hard to find anything that I can feel positive about from that one. And I’ll also be speaking more to the general feeling of where this team is at this season. Because I think this game against the Dolphins is a direct result of the team’s weaknesses.
The Bills took a game that should have been an easy win, and made it look significantly more difficult than it needed to be. In my preview of this game, I mentioned that the Bills should roll if they avoided the trap. They didn’t. They looked woefully unprepared, unengaged, and uninterested. On a day that the New England Patriots continued to win, and a day that the Bills should have easily kept pace, they instead laid an egg.
The Offense
I can’t believe how difficult things look on offense. An offense that employs the reigning MVP, a top three quarterback, and likely a 1-of-1 style player ever in league history, can’t pass the ball. Especially considering heading into the game, their running game has looked like a top two unit in the league –as James Cook should’ve been in the offensive player of the year conversation heading into the day. The fact that they can’t pass the ball under those conditions is not just surprising – it’s criminal.
They look slow. The receiving corps are made up of guys that had mild success in their past lives. The success that these players have had was typically a result of a better option being on the opposite side of the field that freed them up to make plays. Sure would be nice for the Bills to have something similar. But never fear, another mild success story in Gabe Davis should be returning soon. Or Josh Palmer. And save me from the Jaylen Waddle to the Bills conversation. Beane tried. I get it. I’ve tried at things in the past that I’ve been unsuccessful at too, and it resulted in no longer getting paid to do it.
I’m not necessarily advocating for his job, here. But there needs to be results. There needs to be accountability for wasting the prime of a player who might be the greatest football player in league history. There needs to be something. It shouldn’t be this difficult.
The Defense
I don’t have a ton to say about the defense to be honest. The secondary still looks improved compared to early in the season. But the run defense…woof. Blame it on injuries. Blame it on size. Blame it on anything. The Bills cannot stop the run.
This is how they lost to the Atlanta Falcons – which looks like an equally bad loss, by the way. And this is how they lost to the Dolphins. It’s an abysmal performance by a defense that has never had issues like this in the McDermott era. It’s something that needs to be figured out, and if it’s not, the Bills will not be going very far this season, and definitely won’t be hosting a playoff game. It shouldn’t be this difficult.
Coaching
I have a huge problem with coaching. I’ve had a huge problem with coaching for years. I’m going to preface this by saying, I don’t think we have a bad staff. I think McDermott is a good coach. But I think he has a ceiling. And that ceiling does not result in the Buffalo Bills winning their first ever Super Bowl. If they decide to keep rolling with him, I totally understand it. And honestly, it’s totally justifiable. But if the goal here is to win a Super Bowl, I just don’t think he can get us there. He’s too careful. Too conservative. And too bullish on doing things “the right way” than doing what works.
Wasting a reigning MVP is unforgiveable. Whether you want to blame that on McDermott, or offensive coordinator Joe Brady, I could listen to arguments for each. But it’s very clear that – whoever is responsible for the decision – the Bills do not prioritize putting the ball into the hands of one of the best players in the league. It’s malpractice of the highest form. Someone needs to be held accountable, and it’s probably going to start with Joe Brady.
Defensive coaching has been an issue as well. McDermott, regardless of what he says, had taken away play-calling duties from defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. And this is just a symptom of a bigger issue. If you have remove play-calling, you likely don’t have the right guy. It shouldn’t be this difficult.
What Now?
Overall, this sounds like the sky is falling. But they’re still 6-3. Still, more than likely, going to make the playoffs. But don’t appear as if they will be hosting a final playoff game in the old stadium like many fans had hoped. They definitely don’t look like they have a shot at the one-seed anymore. And I struggle to continue to see Super Bowl aspirations this season.
I hope they can figure something out. As of now, it doesn’t look good. They look like a wildcard team at best. And one that could very easily get bounced in the first round. I don’t have all, or really any, of the answers – but I hope they do. Because, honestly, it shouldn’t be this difficult.
Nickel City Picks: Week 10 NFL Predictions & Locks
An 8-6 record? Woof. Last week was rough for Nickel City Picks. Some I was more than happy to get wrong – looking at you Steelers and Bills for showing up – and some I was shocked to have gotten wrong – like the Lions, Packers and Cowboys. Then, there were some picked upsets that I was completely misguided on – actually mostly just one. The Falcons.
But, we’re back for Week 10. With a 28-14 record on our season since we started, we’re feeling okay with how things have shaken out. We would love to be right on the majority of these this week. For no other reason than laziness. It would make our weekly Power Rankings way easier to put together. Here are our Week 10 Picks. Take these as law. Prophecy. Destiny. Unless you’re putting money down. In which case, we never said a thing.
Last Week: 8-6
Season Record: 28-14
Thursday Night Football:
(2-6) Las Vegas Raiders @ (7-2) Denver Broncos – Pick: Denver Broncos
Sunday:
(3-5) Atlanta Falcons @ (7-2) Indianapolis Colts – Pick: Indianapolis Colts
(2-6) Cleveland Browns @ (1-7) New York Jets – Pick: Cleveland Browns
(3-5) Baltimore Ravens @ (4-4) Minnesota Vikings – Pick: Baltimore Ravens
(1-8) New Orleans Saints @ (5-4) Carolina Panthers – Pick: Carolina Panthers
(2-7) New York Giants @ (5-3) Chicago Bears – Pick: Chicago Bears
(7-2) New England Patriots @ (6-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(6-2) Buffalo Bills @ (2-7) Miami Dolphins – Pick: Buffalo Bills
This one is easy. Buffalo shouldn’t have an issue at all here. And I know Week 3 was closer than we would’ve liked. But I think Buffalo is hungry to prove that they have the juice. I’m expecting, not only a win, but a statement in this one.
(5-3) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (3-5) Houston Texans – Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
(3-5) Arizona Cardinals @ (6-2) Seattle Seahawks – Pick: Seattle Seahawks
(6-2) Los Angeles Rams @ (6-3) San Francisco 49ers – Pick: Los Angeles Rams
(5-3) Detroit Lions @ (3-6) Washington Commanders – Pick: Detroit Lions
(5-3) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (6-3) Los Angeles Chargers – Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday Night Football:
(6-2) Philadelphia Eagles @ (5-2-1) Green Bay Packers – Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Lock of the Week: Denver Broncos over Las Vegas Raiders
Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers over Los Angeles Chargers
Haven’t decided on your Sunday eats? Check out our Nickel City Cookbook!
Week 10 Preview: Bills Should Roll in Miami – If They Avoid the Trap
Buffalo looks to make it three straight behind a red-hot James Cook and a defense finding its stride.
It’s Week 10 in the NFL and the 6-2 Buffalo Bills are traveling to Miami to take on the 2-7 Dolphins. Despite a laundry list of injuries, this is a game that the Bills Mafia should feel comfortable with. Miami has struggled to put anything close to a competitive football team on the field – while the Buffalo Bills have started to find their footing on both sides of the ball.
Yet, division games are never a given. Playing these teams twice a year makes it so that your opponent is very familiar with you and your team. As such, division games should never be overlooked. And with a red hot Tampa Bay team coming to town next week, the Bills need to make sure this matchup with the Dolphins doesn’t turn into a trap game.
The Offense
Offensively, the Bills are starting to come to form. Josh Allen looked sharper against the Chiefs than he has all season, throwing for 275 yards – while James Cook, though injured, continues to dominate on the ground. The offensive line is looking like they have reached midseason form, right on time. And the tight ends continue to be a bright spot for production.
All of this coming to fruition, while the Dolphins defense has lost some pieces. Defensive End Jaelan Phillips was traded to Philadelphia. Former Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, safety Ifeatu Melifonwu, and linebacker Chop Robinson, have all missed practice this week. And all while the Dolphins rank 24th in the league in total defense.
The Bills offense should be licking its chops. While the Dolphins have proven to be competent in the passing game – a top ten unit in that category – their rush defense has been bottom five in the league so far. And just two weeks after James Cook put up over 200 yards on Carolina’s defense – and one week after he was the first back all season to post a hundred-yard outing on the Chiefs – the Dolphins should be concerned about keeping up with the Bills.
The Defense
The Bills defense has also come alive since the bye week. The return of cornerback Maxwell Hairston, as well as defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, has breathed new life into this unit. They delivered Patrick Mahomes the worst game of his career just one week ago. And, despite losing fellow returnee Michael Hoecht for the season, the defense should feel confident coming into this matchup vs the Dolphins.
The Dolphins offense has been struggling almost as much as the defense this year. The injury to wide receiver Tyreek Hill has left a void in what was once one of the most explosive units in the league. They haven’t quite seemed to find their footing since. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled to get anything going this year, seemingly regressing in almost every area of his game. And by every measure – points, rush yards, pass yards and total yards per game – the Dolphins offense ranks bottom ten in the league.
The Bills defense should capitalize on these struggles, and be able to continue building on back-to-back strong performances. If they can get pressure early, turnover opportunities should be there to create short fields for the offense. With both sides of the ball trending up, it appears that the Dolphins will be facing a buzz saw this week.
My Take
I don’t really have much more to say about this one. This should easily be a win for the Bills. Even with a banged up team, assuming James Cook is able to go, they should be able to control this game from the start. My only real concern is that of a trap game. If they can set the tone early and dominate the line of scrimmage, I think we’ll be seeing Mitch Trubisky sometime in the second half.
Prediction
I think it happens. I think we’re all bored by the end of this one. The Bills will dominate from the jump, and James Cook will build on his Offensive Player of the Year campaign.
Buffalo Bills – 38, Miami Dolphins - 17
Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 10
Week 9 resulted in some shakeups. Some surprising results. All of our top four teams from last week lost in their matchups. These power rankings are in disarray as a result. Par for the course for the NFL in November.
1. Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (Last Week: 6) – Matthew Stafford is inevitable. He is not the MVP frontrunner, but he absolutely should be.
2. Buffalo Bills (6-2) (Last Week: 8) – This week was such a big win to keep them competitive in the standings. The quest for the one seed is back on.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (Last Week: 5) – Howie Roseman refuses to sit still. He has reloaded his team for another deep playoff run
4. Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (Last Week: 1) – I’d love to say this is an indicator that Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones. It’s not. They’re still going to be just fine.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (Last Week: 7) – Sometimes the best thing you can do, is to do nothing at all. Which is exactly what they did on their bye week.
6. Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (Last Week: 10) – Sam Darnold is suddenly good. The Vikings are sad as a result. And now he’s got Rashid Shaheed to run next to JSN and Cooper Kupp.
7. Denver Broncos (7-2) (Last Week: 9) – I want them to lose a game or two. But they keep winning. And I’d actually be okay with them beating the Chiefs a time or two.
8. New England Patriots (7-2) (Last Week: 11) – They’re good. Potentially really good. But I still think there is going to be a surprising loss or two down the stretch.
9. Detroit Lions (5-3) (Last Week: 2) – I still think that this is the most complete team in the league. But they can’t help but stub their toe a few times every season.
10. Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (Last Week: 3) – A loss to an inferior Carolina Panthers team. The offense struggled to put together a drive that resulted in points. I struggled to put them in my top 10.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (Last Week: 4) – They still have an elite offense. But at 5-4 and with an extremely tough schedule coming up, I can’t consciously rank them higher.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (Last Week: 14) – While they had an extremely impressive win over the Colts, the Steelers are still the Steelers. And I hope to see them in the playoffs.
13. San Fransisco 49ers (6-3) (Last Week: 12) – It’s tough to fall in the power rankings after a win. But the win was against the Giants. And sometimes other teams are more impressive.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (Last Week: 13) – I could write the exact same thing as I did for the 49ers here. They beat the Titans. I hope they can beat the Chiefs again down the road.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (Last Week: 15) – They’re good? I guess? It’s the most reluctant version of being good. Jakobi Meyers doesn’t move the needle for me at all.
16. Chicago Bears (5-3) (Last Week: 16) – I’m leaving them here. It’s where they currently belong. What a stupid win. This team is chaos. It’s great.
17. Carolina Panthers (5-4) (Last Week: 19) – I don’t know what to make of this team. But I do know that hanging 40 on them looks pretty impressive for the Bills.
18. Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (Last Week: 21) – I was pretty certain that JJ McCarthy was going to be a bust. I’m less certain now. A good division win in an insane division.
19. Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (Last Week: 23) – They’ve move up. They’re probably going to continue to move up as they continue to get healthier. I’d rather not see them again this year.
20. Houston Texans (3-5) (Last Week: 17) – Every time I think I know what this team is, they do something that makes me throw my arms up in the air and re-evaluate.
21. Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (Last Week: 25) – If your backup QB gives you a better shot to win than your franchise QB, you’re in a bad spot.
22. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (Last Week: 18) – Not even Quinnen Williams can make this defense look competent. Any team playing against the Cowboys should hang up 14 more points than usual.
23. Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (Last Week: 22) – They were so close to helping the Bills out. Instead, they disappointed the Mafia for the second time this season.
24. Washington Commanders (3-6) (Last Week: 20) – What an unfortunate injury for Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota isn’t going to take you anywhere.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (Last Week: 24) – Joe Flacco definitely gives them a shot to win games. They lost an extremely stupid one. That being said, there’s nothing about this team without Burrow that scares me in the slightest.
26. New York Giants (2-7) (Last Week: 26) – They lost again. This is where they belong. Mostly because they’re still better than the teams that are below them.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (Last Week: 29) – Geno Smith was good in Seattle. He is in a terrible situation in Vegas. As are Jeanty and Bowers. It’s bleak.
28. Miami Dolphins (2-7) (Last Week: 27) – This team is nowhere. They needed to do what the Jets did and tear it down completely. Only trading Phillips is a half measure.
29. Cleveland Browns (2-6) (Last Week: 28) – Get back to me when they figure out their quarterback situation. Gabriel? Sanders? Did they start the right one? Who knows? Who cares, even?
30. New York Jets (1-7) (Last Week: 31) – They moved up a spot by default simply because the team that moved down as a result is willingly starting a worse quarterback than before.
31. New Orleans Saints (1-8) (Last Week: 30) – They shouldn’t have moved away from Rattler. Even while losing. And yet, they did.
32. Tennessee Titans (1-7) (Last Week: 32) – Do I have to actually write anything about this team?
Complete Win
Bills beat Chiefs for fifth straight time in the regular season, 28-21.
I have to start this by saying; I am so glad that I was wrong in my prediction from the Week 9 Preview piece. I vastly underestimated this team’s ability to stop any offense, let alone one that is as high powered as the Kansas City Chiefs.
This was a complete win. The section of this piece that I normally entitle The Bad is going to be much shorter than it has been in my first two recaps. The offense moved the ball with relative ease. The defense got pressure on the front end and the secondary came together when it mattered most. It’s easily their most impressive win of the season, and gives the fan base more hope than they’ve had since before the Patriots loss. Let’s start where it matters most – with what helped secure the W.
The Good
Let’s start with the defense. The front four had their best game of the season. By a lot. After the game, it was said that they made a point of staying in their rush lanes during practice in the week leading up to the game. It worked. Pressuring Mahomes on over 50% of drop backs, hitting him more than he ever has been hit in his career, and holding him to his lowest completion percentage of his career. They are directly responsible for making the Chiefs offense look clunky.
But, it wasn’t because Mahomes didn’t have time to throw. There were plenty of opportunities where he had more than enough time to get a pass off. The Bills secondary stepped up to shut those opportunities down, though. Adding Maxwell Hairston and Jordan Hancock into the secondary has breathed new life into the defense. The secondary looks faster, more athletic, and more cohesive overall as a result. This contributed massively to the defensive success in this game. And it’s something that Bills fans will be clamoring to see more of in the future.
The offense. James Cook did James Cook things. The guy is an animal. From where I was sitting, you could see the holes in the line clearly. There were times where there were no holes visible, and somehow Cook still found space for five extra yards. Another super impressive outing by Cook.
Allen came to life. Not completely to MVP form, but good enough considering his weapons. He and Dalton Kincaid continue to build their relationship, resulting in Kincaid blossoming into the player that we’d hoped he’d be when the Bills drafted him. Allen looks his way often, and it’s clear that him and Khalil Shakir are his first two options every time he drops back. He seemed significantly more comfortable than he has in weeks past when he drops back. Which is extremely impressive to have happen in what has so far been the biggest game of the Bills season.
The Bad
Allen is still turning down running options. He is definitely holding it back. There were multiple times throughout that game where he had a scramble option and turned it down. The worst of which being on a fourth and three early in the game where the running lane opened, and he instead threw a ten yard in, that resulted in an incomplete pass and turnover on downs. It’s not a stretch to say he’s saving it for the playoffs. But the opportunities are there now.
Part of that comes from the fact that the receivers are still struggling. The few times that Allen did scramble outside of the pocket, he was having trouble seeing anybody open. From witnessing it in person, I will say it’s because the receivers were blanketed. It’s still abundantly clear that the Bills need help at that position more than any other.
The coaching staff had a few questionable decisions as well. I should be clear here; overall, I thought they had a great game. However, recent games have made the few mistakes that they did make stand out more than normal. It’s because they keep making the same ones over and over. Two of them that stood out most to me were the timeout before the field goal, and a third and ten screen to Shakir that went nowhere. Both are trends for this staff. Taking unnecessary timeouts because his team wasn’t ready in situations where that won’t affect the outcome of the game is something that McDermott has been notorious for. Similarly, screen passes in situations that don’t warrant a screen pass is something that Brady has been notorious for. We can keep hoping they fix it, even though they likely won’t.
My Take
This win was huge. Especially after a Colts loss the Steelers. It not only keeps us squarely in the division race, but squarely in the race for the one seed as well. I still need to see some movement before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Receiver is the glaring need. Last week, I had safety as the secondary need. I’m downgrading that once again. I’d like to see a defensive end or defensive tackle after the injuries to Ed Oliver and Michael Hoecht. Keep the pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, and watch your young secondary go to work.
Week 9 Preview: Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo looks for redemption in Orchard Park as Mahomes and Kelce return to town.
Here it is, in Week 9. The game that everyone circles on the calendar every season. The game that is supposed to be an annual showdown of perennial NFL heavyweights. The second of three games that I was actually willing to go to this season.
Yet, it feels different this year. I’m significantly more nervous about this game than I have been in years past. To be clear, I always have nerves heading into this matchup. But most years, it’s a nervous excitement. This year feels almost like it did in 2020 – where the Chiefs had a dominant offense and the Bills have to prove that they belong.
I’d love to tell you to cue up Shout and Mr. Brightside. But I haven’t gotten there, yet.
Stopping the Chiefs
This has been the biggest concern for anybody that has faced the Chiefs this season. Their offense has been a machine. It has not been broken like it was the previous two years. And stopping them – let alone slowing them down – has been next to impossible.
They feature five wide receivers that the Bills would like to have just one of – and that doesn’t even include Travis Kelce or Noah Gray – and Patrick Mahomes seems more willing to scramble than ever.
Two weeks ago, I would have called this an impossible task. The Bills defense looked like it had nothing but holes on it. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t get to the quarterback, and receivers were finding gaps in the zone on a regular basis. Now, I have a little more hope.
The defense looked like it had a bit more pop in last weeks game against the Carolina Panthers. The returns of Maxwell Hairston, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi gave the defense life. The deployment of rookie safety Jordan Hancock, when paired up with Cole Bishop, made the back end of the defense look considerably faster. And the emergence of rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker made running the ball against this team difficult for the first time all season.
Still, the sample size of the defense stepping up is small. One game, even. It results in fans of the Bills cautiously approaching this game with even the slightest bit of optimism. It may have to be the track meet that we’ve all grown accustomed to in this matchup over the years.
The Offense Needs to Show Up
This has been the first time this season that many of us have felt this way. The offense needs to show up and show up big. It’s very rare that a team can win a game the previous week 40-9 and have the running back rush for 200+ and the fan base somehow feels worse.
This is where the passing game needs to fire. It would be great if the running game did, too. But this is where Josh Allen needs to look like Josh Allen. Nothing would ignite that stadium like another 30 point performance where Allen picks apart a Chiefs defense. It would inspire more confidence than we’ve seen all season. And it might be completely necessary in order to walk out with a victory.
The path to success here doesn’t seem like a difficult one for the Bills, on paper. The Bills love to run short pass plays, which will play to their favor in this matchup. If there is a weak point on the Chiefs defense, it’s defending swing passes to the opponents running backs. And if the Bills can find success there, along with passing to Shakir and Kincaid, it will burst the running game wide open and allow James Cook to build on the already incredible season that he’s having.
It sounds great in theory. But, this is still a Steve Spagnuolo led defense, who tends to find answers for his teams weaknesses. Look for him to send multiple blitz packages at Allen, and dare the Bills receiving options to get open fast enough for Allen to beat them.
My Take
I have to be honest here, this game scares me. The Chiefs have the ability to suck the life out of that stadium early. And if they manage to do that, watch out. If the Bills can manage some early stops though – brace yourself, it’s going to be a wild one. A couple of key stops, as well as involving James Cook more in the passing game, could just result in seventy thousand Bills fans singing Mr. Brightside at the end of the game.
Prediction
I don’t know how to do this without sounding doom and gloom. This is a game that I can see going one of two ways – the game is a nail biter and coin flip, or the Chiefs win big. I don’t see an in between. And I hope I’m wrong. I’d much rather be partying during a Buffalo route of the Chiefs.
Kansas City 37, Buffalo 31