Ran Mesh to Free Myself Up to Write This

Bills lose in embarrassing fashion to the Houston Texans 23-19. Fall to 7-4.

I’m going to be honest — I don’t even know where to begin. I went to bed angry, woke up angry, and stayed angry writing this. A couple weeks ago, I wrote about how it shouldn’t be this difficult. Today, I feel that again — except now it’s been fully solidified. This team is consistently outcoached.

I’ve known it for a while. Last night just cemented it.

There’s a lot I want to talk about. If I get rolling, this might turn into a full rant. Not the plan, but this thing already started looser than I expected, so who knows.

The Offense

What a performance (derogatory). What a game from Joe Brady (also derogatory). I cannot believe this is an NFL offensive plan. People keep saying the Bills are running three concepts, and I didn’t want to believe it. But it’s absolutely true.

Mesh. Duo. Tunnel screen. Those are the three. You’ve got a 1-in-3 shot of guessing right. If Allen is under center, it’s Duo — 100% of the time. Shotgun? Flip a coin between Mesh and Tunnel. And if the ball is held longer than two seconds? Mesh.

This isn’t even my original observation. It’s national media guys casually noticing it while watching all 32 teams. So if they can pick it up? Imagine what a defense spending 60 hours on the Bills specifically is going to see.

Thursday night, it looked like Houston knew the Bills’ call on almost every snap.

And look: the Texans are an elite defense. They’re usually prepared. But Thursday? It looked easy. It looked like they were reading the Bills’ plays off of a script.

Meanwhile, the Bills let Allen get obliterated all night. Protection calls were baffling. Five-man protection against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter is a choice I wish the Bills would have stopped making. Multiple times, I thought Allen wasn’t getting back up. And not once did I notice extra protection, chips, anything. Just straight-up malpractice.

But this also exposes Joe Brady’s real issue: He cannot adjust mid-game.

The pass rush was cooking from the opening drive. No adjustment. None. The run game was working — James Cook ripped a 45-yard touchdown because Houston got too aggressive. But outside of a late-game, four-straight-run sequence that gassed Cook and ended in a turnover on downs, Brady refused to lean into what was actually working.

Just push the ball downfield. Over and over. Regardless of context.

This is the biggest red flag with him. You can’t install a game plan and run it start-to-finish like it’s Madden Franchise Mode. Even the Bills defense — with all its flaws — adjusts mid-game.

The offense? Not even close.

The Defense

This wasn’t the abysmal performance that we’ve seen recently with this defense. I think they were probably saved by Houston’s woeful rush offense. But it was still a tough game for them. Making a stop is always a victory - but it seemed even more surprising in this one when it happened. They shouldn’t be getting beat by the likes of Davis Mills.

Pressure was nearly non-existent for the Bills. Getting to the quarterback was not on the menu. It seemed that the only times that they could were when they blitzed an extra safety – and even then, they still weren’t getting home. With a more competent quarterback, this game would’ve likely been a lot uglier as a result. Mills had time back there – which is a shame because the coverage looked like a bright spot for most of the night.

Most of the plays resulted in Mills dropping back, having a cup of tea back there, a wide receiver meandering open, Mills hitting them, and then three Bills defenders missing tackles, before one of them finally decides to bring them down.

And therein lies the issue with last nights – and almost every other game this seasons – defense. The tackling was atrocious. Multiple times, they had third down stops against the Texans. They would have running back Woody Marks dead to rights in the backfield and he would bounce off two or three men and find his way to a first down.

I haven’t decided if it’s poor technique, or undersized players that are the culprit. Probably a combination of both. I’d likely lean more towards the size though, with some technique sprinkled in for flavor.

On top of that, the Bills are running so many backups out there. It only got worse in this one. Linebacker Terrell Bernard and cornerback Maxwell Hairston both left the game with injuries. But the defense was able to overcome and put together a few stops late in this one to keep the team in the game. The in-game adjustments were working. Only on that side of the ball though.

My Take

I think I’m fully in the clean house this offseason camp. It’s time. By no means do I think this coaching staff is bad. At least McDermott, anyway. But I do think that the team has gotten away from him and general manager Brandon Beane. It happens – and I think it happened.

After all, this isn’t a bad football team – it’s a stale one. And if Terry Pegula isn’t willing to go that far, then at very least the coordinators need to go. I think we need some established coordinators on both sides of the ball that know this league, and can fully implement their systems. Yes, that means defensively too. I think if McDermott can settle more into a CEO role, it would serve him well. Or, at very least, better.

But overall? I don’t know. It just might be time.

Week 12 Preview: Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Bills look to keep their foot on the gas as they face top defense in the league.

It’s Week 12 and the Buffalo Bills are traveling to Houston to take on the 4-5 Texans on Thursday Night Football. This is a game that, by all accounts, Buffalo should be able to get a W. Davis Mills is starting for the Texans in place of CJ Stroud, who is out with a concussion – and that should bode well for a Bills defense that is still searching for some answers.

On the Bills side of things, rumor has it that wide receiver Keon Coleman will not be dressed for the second straight week. The Bills offense looks to build off last weeks momentum that saw the NFL’s reigning MVP find the endzone on six occasions. But it won’t be easy as the Texans boast the leagues best defense, who are capable of turning any game into a dog fight.

All Gas, No Brakes

The old mantra in the league is that defense wins championships. It’s something that most Bills fans would only partially agree with right now, and it’s because we know what the offense is capable of. Last weeks tilt vs the Bucs was evidence of that. And if it’s something that can be pulled off vs this Texans defense, it might be their most impressive performance to date. It won’t come easy. Texans defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses. It’s slightly concerning considering this is a season where Josh Allen has looked less comfortable in the pocket than he has in maybe the last five years.

But he is the reigning MVP and we have seen him step up in the biggest moments before. He looked far more comfortable last week with wide receiver Tyrell Shavers getting more run on the outside, as well as former-Bill/future-Bill Gabe Davis being brought back into the fold. It seemed to click things back into place a week ago. And if it continues to look that way against this defense, the confidence of the team, and the fan base, will skyrocket. Considering what the conversation was just a week and a half ago, that would be incredibly impressive to see.

After all, James Cook’s best use in this game might be as a passing weapon. The Texans have the third ranked rush defense in the entire league. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league, making runs up the middle difficult, even in light boxes. And linebacker Aziz Al-Shair is rangy enough to meet Cook on the outside if they try that, as well. The Bills would be best served to use their quick passing game in this one. But even then, the Texans also have the third ranked pass defense. Derek Stingley could still pose a problem.

No Run D? No Problem

The jury has been out on the Bills defense this year. The pass defense looks much improved, with second year Safety Cole Bishop playing out of his mind, and rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston looking like he belongs. But the run defense has still been suspect – and I think that is being generous. The Bills run defense ranks 31st in the league heading into Week 12. And it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon.

Thankfully, it shouldn’t be an issue in this one. The Texans run offense has been weak this season. Ranked 23rd in the league - and onto fourth round rookie running back Woody Marks - if there was a game to get the run defense right this would be it. But it shouldn’t be their primary concern. If the offense does it’s job, the Texans should be playing catch up for most of the game.

If they can get out to an early lead, the Texans will have to rely on quarterback Davis Mills to move the ball. A tall task for any backup quarterback. But he has weapons. Wide receiver Nico Collins should have the Bills secondary gravitating his way. But outside of that? The Bills seemingly don’t have a ton more to worry about with the passing game. The Texans offensive line is a travesty, and the Bills should be looking to create pressure and make things difficult for Mills.

My Take

I’m cautiously optimistic about this one. I think the Bills at very least attempt to keep running the offense wide open. But it’s not going to come without speed bumps against a defense like this. It’ll definitely be lower scoring than we’re used to. And there is a small chance that that could bode well for the Texans. After all, they have won two straight.

Prediction

This is one that I don’t think will be a blowout. I think the Texans will keep the Bills in check for the most part. But I also think that the Bills defense will dominate the Texans offense, giving the Bills offense more opportunities to put up points.

Buffalo Bills – 24, Houston Texans – 14

Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 12

Week 11 is complete. Things have started to stabilize a little bit more. We’re starting to fully understand What these teams are. Then again, there are some basement dwellers that have won a couple straight (Dolphins) and some perennial favorites that are ready to be buried (Chiefs). So what do we really know? Let’s hash it out!

1.  Los Angeles Rams (8-2) (Last Week: 1) – This is the most impressive team in the league, bar none. The fact that they aren’t the unanimous favorite amongst all platforms is flat out wrong.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) (Last Week: 2) – At least to me, they’re solidly the number two team in the league. Nothing they do is super impressive. But they keep making games ugly and then winning them.

3.  New England Patriots (9-2) (Last Week: 5) – They deserve the jump. Winners of eight straight. Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. I’m just waiting (or hoping) for the bubble to burst.

4.  Indianapolis Colts (8-2) (Last Week: 3) – They didn’t do anything wrong in their bye week to deserve the drop. The Patriots are just the flavor of the week.

5.   Denver Broncos (9-2) (Last Week: 7) – They’re atop the AFC. I don’t think their way of winning is completely sustainable, but they are a great team. They deserve top five.

6.  Seattle Seahawks (7-3) (Last Week: 4) – Dropping them a little bit. Only because they lost, but it was to the best team in the league. So I can’t really hold that against them.

7.  Buffalo Bills (7-3) (Last Week: 9) – The Bills opened up their offense. They need to keep playing with that kind of reckless abandon. If they do, they should keep moving up this board.

8.  Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) (Last Week: 12) – They won against the Giants in not very convincing fashion. But so many more teams are a lot more underwhelming than them.

9.  Detroit Lions (6-4) (Last Week: 6) – How is this team with this amount of talent 6-4? Turns out the loss of Ben Johnson was bigger than anticipated.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (Last Week: 8) – This team is extremely injured. And when they get healthy, I could see them as a serious Super Bowl contender.  

11. Chicago Bears (7-3) (Last Week: 13) – It hasn’t been the most impressive 7-3. But 7-3 is 7-3. And I don’t think the league is ready for the Bears to be good again.

12. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) (Last Week: 14) – Kyle Shanahan always has his team in the running, regardless of who the quarterback is. And Brock Purdy is back now.

13  Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) (Last Week: 11) – It brings me so much joy to push them down this far. And I know I’m supposed to root for them against the Colts – I don’t think my body will physically allow me to. I want the Colts to bury them.

14. Baltimore Ravens (5-5) (Last Week: 16) – They’re coming back. The Steelers are in their sights. Just as expected. They would’ve been higher if not for an ugly win against the lowly Browns.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) (Last Week: 17) – What an impressive win against the Chargers. They’ll lose a stupid one soon to make up for it though.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) (Last Week: 15) – They have to just be staring at their rearview mirror waiting for the Ravens to catch them. Especially now that Rodgers is hurt. Scary times.

17. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) (Last Week: 10) – Chargers gonna Charger. What a rough loss to the Jaguars. After all, can’t make it too hard on the Chiefs, right?

18. Houston Texans (5-5) (Last Week: 18) – A dogfight win against the Titans. Their defense is the one thing that’s keeping them in games. And it’s good enough to beat anyone in the league. Including the Bills.

19. Carolina Panthers (6-5) (Last Week: 19) – A three point win this week against the Falcons is unfortunately not enough to get me to move them out of this spot.

20. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) (Last Week: 20) – Can anybody else play quarterback? It doesn’t feel like a stretch to think this is a competitive team with literally anybody else.

21. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) (Last Week: 21) – Even after a dominant win over the Raiders, it’s not enough to get me to move them. Get a defense and then we’ll talk.

22. Miami Dolphins (4-7) (Last Week: 26) – I know they only beat the Commanders this week, and it was only by three points, but two straight, and at least one of them was impressive.

23. Arizona Cardinals (3-7) (Last Week: 22) – Getting blown out always results in you dropping spots. I just can’t put them below any of the teams that are frequenting this area of the list.

24. Atlanta Falcons (3-7) (Last Week: 23) – Every game that they play is close. They just can’t seem to win any of them. Especially now that Penix is out for the rest of the year.

25. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) (Last Week: 24) – They need Joe Burrow back so bad. And they’re going to get it. But is there a point? It’s far too late to make any kind of a run.

26. Washington Commanders (3-8) (Last Week: 25) – They lost to the Dolphins. Not that I, a Bills fan, can talk. But still. They lost to the Dolphins - who only scored 16 points.

27. New York Giants (2-9) (Last Week: 27) – Winston is always a fun watch. But 2-9 is 2-9 and seeing them win a game the rest of the way will be a surprise.

28. New Orleans Saints (2-9) (Last Week: 28) – They continue to lose. They’re going to continue to lose. And they need a real life quarterback in the worst way.

29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) (Last Week: 30) – They lost to the Cowboys. But they still looked better than the Jets. So they get to move up a spot.

30. Cleveland Browns (2-8) (Last Week: 31) – They lost to the Ravens. But they still looked better than the Jets. So they get to move up a spot.

31. New York Jets (2-8) (Last Week: 29) – They lost to the Patriots. And Justin Fields looked so incompetent that they’re moving to Tyrod Taylor. But they’re not the Titans. So 31 it is.

32. Tennessee Titans (1-9) (Last Week: 32) – They are the Titans.

Unleashed

Bills offense explodes as Buffalo beats Tampa Bay 44-32.

Any doubt that the offense no longer had it in them to go punch for punch with another team is now gone. The Buffalo Bills came out and showed the league what they were capable of on Sunday – capped by a six-touchdown performance by the leagues reigning MVP. All in a day’s work in an afternoon that saw ten lead changes in the game vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows though, as most games aren’t. The Bills run defense still surrendered over two hundred yards on the ground. It didn’t matter, though. Josh Allen was still able to put on the cape and carry the team to what was possibly their most impressive performance of the season.

The Good

Offensively, this is what the team looks like when they’re playing loose. This was the most wide open they’ve looked and the downfield passing game looked like a threat for the first time all season. The return of wide receiver Joshua Palmer and addition of wide receiver Gabe Davis proved to be the lift that the team needed. As well as a surprisingly good performance by Tyrell Shavers who nabbed four catches for 90 yards – capped off by a 43-yard bomb from Allen.

Josh Allen looked a lot like the old Josh Allen in this one. The game started out looking like we were going to get the same type of game that we’ve been getting all season – where everything looked way harder than it needed to, a couple of stupid turnovers, and the fan base wondering what happened to the guy that would run over three defenders just to get an extra yard. Then that guy showed back up – seemingly out of nowhere. Throwing down field with reckless abandon, running around like his hair was on fire, and overall looking like the superman that we’ve all grown accustomed to. Six touchdowns, three passing and three rushing, and two interceptions that included an ill-conceived two-handed chest pass. We got the full experience yesterday. Josh Allen giveth, and Josh Allen taketh away.

Defensively, what a game by Cole Bishop. Since the return of Jordan Poyer, Bishop has looked borderline like an all-pro. He made a hell of a play that resulted in an interception in the third quarter, and looks like he can be at least one of the long-term answers at the safety position. Terrell Bernard also had his best game of the season, piling up 11 tackles throughout this one.

The Bad

The defense wasn’t all good, however. This team cannot stop the run to save their lives. It was another game where they allowed over two hundred on the ground, and was only saved by the offenses ability to move the ball. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that this team could be in trouble if they are unable to move the ball and score points on offense.

Turnovers also continues to be a huge issue. As previously noted, Josh threw two picks, one with that two handed chest pass, the other came on a 4th and 2 in-route that was probably the one time they should’ve tried to go to the flat. On top of that, there was a fumbled punt return by newest Buffalo Bill Mecole Hardman, as well as a fumble by running back Ty Johnson that he was able to recover.

My Take

They need to clean up the turnovers, and field some semblance of a defense. But, outside of that, this is what this team should look like. When you have an all-world quarterback, you should unleash him. You should allow him to take control of a game if he wants to and needs to. You should do so without worrying about things like balance or efficiency.

This looked like the team that was :13 away from getting past the Chiefs and heading to the conference championship in 2021. It looked like the team that could go out there and beat anybody. It looked like the team that could take this all the way to Delaware Ave for their Super Bowl parade. And this is exactly how the team should look going into Houston this week for Thursday Night Football.

Week 11 Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

Bills need a win to restore confidence with the fan base.

It’s week 11 and the 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming to town to face the 6-3 Buffalo Bills. It’s safe to say that the Bills need a win more than the Bucs here. But the injuries have been stacking up for both teams lately.

The Bucs are missing running back Bucky Irving and receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Bills, have a laundry list of questionable players at key positions. Shakir and Palmer are banged up at receiver, however both appear to be tracking to play. Tight End Dalton Kincaid is out with a hamstring, and nickel corners Taron Johnson and Cam Lewis are both questionable. There is still a path to victory for the Bills, though, who are overdue for a good game offensively.

Recycle the Panthers Gameplan

This is an area of the game that the Bills could exploit. Vita Vea is a game wrecker up the middle and could prevent the Bills from using that area of the field with their run game. That being said, they should be able to find room to the outside, much like they did in the game vs the Carolina Panthers. Look for them to use the toss game to try to get to the edge.

The passing game is a giant question mark for me in this game. Josh Allen hasn’t been right all season, and it seems it’s largely due to trust in his receivers to get open. Josh Palmer seems to be returning though, and the Bills could bring up practice squad receiver, and former Bills safety valve, Gabe Davis. These two additions, while I don’t think they move the needle enough, could instill some confidence back in the reigning MVP. And, if nothing else, it should finally put some fear into opposing defenses that the Bills could take a deep shot.

Overall, I think this is a game that the offense can get going. As much as we don’t enjoy hearing the phrase two-dimensional football, I think this is a game where that would benefit them tremendously.

Baiting Baker

Defensively, they’re facing one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the league. Baker Mayfield is afraid of nothing and no one. He will try to push the ball down the field and beat you with his legs if you start drifting back. But he can be baited into mistakes. His aggressiveness can be used against him, and the Bills should try to force him into mistakes.

It won’t come easily, with the Bills secondary being extremely banged up - Christian Benford, Cam Lewis, and Taron Johnson are all questionable to play. But, rookie Defensive Tackle T.J. Sanders may be coming back from IR, and could provide added pressure up the middle.

Sanders could help with more than the pass game as well. The Bills have struggled to stop the run this year, and running back Rachaad White will be looking to make an impact early.

My Take

This game is tough for me. The Bills have struggled lately, and the Bucs are no joke. At one point, I thought they might be the best team in the NFC. But the Bills must be motivated to make a statement after a week of negative publicity following an embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins. If they can tighten up the run defense, get the passing game going, and get the running game to the outside, I think they can pull it off. However, I think we’ll know pretty early what kind of game we’re going to get.

Prediction

I think the Bills defense shows up and looks a little more polished than they have as of late. But I think we continue to see the offense struggle. Brady has been far too predictable, and I think the way to beat the Bills offense is well documented.

Buccaneers 24, Bills 21

Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 11

Week 10. We should have a pretty good grasp on the league by now. But it somehow feels like we don’t? I’m not sure what that’s about. But none of the teams we are normally confident in are looking like their past dominant selves. And there are many teams that most would assume are pretenders that we are waiting for to fall off. Yet that hasn’t happened yet. So let’s rank them all!

1.       Los Angeles Rams (7-2) (Last Week: 1) – I’ve talked about Matthew Stafford in this every single week that I’ve done it. And he deserves it. As do the Rams. The clear top team in the league, to me.

2.       Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) (Last Week: 3) – It wasn’t the most convincing win. But the Bills lost and the Eagles won. So they move up to the 2 spot.

3.       Indianapolis Colts (8-2) (Last Week: 4) – They’ve shown some weak spots the past two weeks. But Jonathan Taylor is still an animal. And you can basically just re-read what I wrote about the Eagles.

4.       Seattle Seahawks (7-2) (Last Week: 6) – Has any team looked more impressive as of late? The Seahawks are a wagon.

5.       New England Patriots (8-2) (Last Week: 8) – It’s unfortunate but the Patriots are also a wagon. And look like they could easily win the AFC East.

6.       Detroit Lions (6-3) (Last Week: 9) – Time to get the most complete team in football back on the rails. Don’t let them catch fire.

7.       Denver Broncos (8-2) (Last Week: 7) – They keep winning but never really do anything to impress me. As a result, I can’t move them up or down. They’ll stay here.

8.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) (Last Week: 5) – I think we all were hoping that they would show up against the Patriots. Now we have to hope they lay an egg this week.

9.       Buffalo Bills (6-3) (Last Week: 2) – Second straight week of the number 2 team dropping to the 9 spot. We thought they figured it out. They very clearly didn’t. Time to cross our fingers again.

10.   Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) (Last Week: 14) – Herbert is taking a ton of hits. But they won again. And continue to hold the Chiefs at bay

11.   Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (Last Week: 11) – I can’t consciously demote them on the bye week. As much as I want to, anything lower than this would be lying to myself.

12.   Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) (Last Week: 10) – Their defense looks elite. Like, scary elite. But they just can’t get anything going offensively. And have a mediocre record to show for it.

13.   Chicago Bears (6-3) (Last Week: 16) – Ben Johnson is a good coach. And the Bears are showing competence as a result. Just not greatness.

14.   San Fransisco 49ers (6-4) (Last Week: 13) – I don’t have much of a change with them. They find a way to be good regardless of situation. They’ll be in it down the stretch.

15.   Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) (Last Week: 12) – A winning record but woooooooof Aaron Rodgers. They’ll finish 9-8 and likely miss the playoffs. They’re not winning that division.

16.   Baltimore Ravens (4-5) (Last Week: 19) – They have the majority of their team back from injury and are a game back in the division. Spoiler: they’re going to take it from the Steelers.

17.   Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) (Last Week: 15) – We can continue taking shots in the dark about whether this is a serious football team or not. They’re middle of the pack for a reason.

18.   Houston Texans (4-5) (Last Week: 20) – They’re defense is what is winning them games. It’s something that can result in them crashing just about anybody’s party. Don’t take them lightly.

19.   Carolina Panthers (5-5) (Last Week: 17) – Is losing to the Saints worse than losing to the Dolphins? Probably.

20.   Minnesota Vikings (4-5) (Last Week: 18) – J.J. McCarthy is an agent of chaos. I wouldn’t bet on this team with somebody else’s money. Because who knows what you’re getting?

21.   Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (Last Week: 22) – It’s a bye week. And, although their defense will still be atrocious, at least Jerry traded for some pieces.

22.   Arizona Cardinals (3-6) (Last Week: 21) – Moving them down a spot because of the L. They’re not terrible. But they’re definitely not good.

23.   Atlanta Falcons (3-6) (Last Week: 23) – Same thing as the Cardinals. They’re not good. But definitely not the worst in the league. Standing pat, here.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (Last Week: 25) – Joe Flacco may just get them through. Rumors are circulating that Joe Burrow may return for week 13. But it also may be too late.

25.   Washington Commanders (3-7) (Last Week: 24) – Marcus Mariota will not win this team games. Without Jayden Daniels, they are lost.

26.   Miami Dolphins (3-7) (Last Week: 28) – They showed up to absolutely dismantle the Bills in between firing their GM last week, and more front office personnel this week.

27.   New York Giants (2-8) (Last Week: 26) – Jaxson Dart still looks like he could be decent. They got some bad injury luck this year, as well. But now, Brian Daboll is out as head coach.

28.   New Orleans Saints (2-8) (Last Week: 31) – They haven’t done anything to deserve this jump. Other teams just look worse.

29.   New York Jets (2-7) (Last Week: 30) – You won a game! Congratulations! It was against the Browns though, so we’re only going to move you up one spot.

30.   Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) (Last Week: 27) – They lost to the Broncos. Not the worst loss in the world. But they lost 10-7. You can’t even put up double digits? Yikes.

31.   Cleveland Browns (2-7) (Last Week: 29) – Do I really have to say more here than they lost to the Jets? They’re eagerly awaiting Deshaun Watson’s return.

32.   Tennessee Titans (1-8) (Last Week: 32) – Any sliver of doubt that they are the worst team in football is now gone. It’s undisputed. Unanimous. The. Worst. Team. In. Football.

It Shouldn’t Be This Difficult

Bills are embarrassed on the road by hapless Miami Dolphins team, 30-13.

Normally in my Bills recaps, I had planned on sticking to the same format week in and week out. The Good, The Bad, My Take. I also try to focus on the one game from that week. It works because, even in massive wins and terrible losses, I can apply each of those statements without too much trouble. This time, I’m not putting anything good in here. They simply don’t deserve it. And I would have to look way too hard to find anything that I can feel positive about from that one. And I’ll also be speaking more to the general feeling of where this team is at this season. Because I think this game against the Dolphins is a direct result of the team’s weaknesses.

The Bills took a game that should have been an easy win, and made it look significantly more difficult than it needed to be. In my preview of this game, I mentioned that the Bills should roll if they avoided the trap. They didn’t. They looked woefully unprepared, unengaged, and uninterested. On a day that the New England Patriots continued to win, and a day that the Bills should have easily kept pace, they instead laid an egg.

The Offense

I can’t believe how difficult things look on offense. An offense that employs the reigning MVP, a top three quarterback, and likely a 1-of-1 style player ever in league history, can’t pass the ball. Especially considering heading into the game, their running game has looked like a top two unit in the league –as James Cook should’ve been in the offensive player of the year conversation heading into the day. The fact that they can’t pass the ball under those conditions is not just surprising – it’s criminal.

They look slow. The receiving corps are made up of guys that had mild success in their past lives. The success that these players have had was typically a result of a better option being on the opposite side of the field that freed them up to make plays. Sure would be nice for the Bills to have something similar. But never fear, another mild success story in Gabe Davis should be returning soon. Or Josh Palmer. And save me from the Jaylen Waddle to the Bills conversation. Beane tried. I get it. I’ve tried at things in the past that I’ve been unsuccessful at too, and it resulted in no longer getting paid to do it.

I’m not necessarily advocating for his job, here. But there needs to be results. There needs to be accountability for wasting the prime of a player who might be the greatest football player in league history. There needs to be something. It shouldn’t be this difficult.

The Defense

I don’t have a ton to say about the defense to be honest. The secondary still looks improved compared to early in the season. But the run defense…woof. Blame it on injuries. Blame it on size. Blame it on anything. The Bills cannot stop the run.

This is how they lost to the Atlanta Falcons – which looks like an equally bad loss, by the way. And this is how they lost to the Dolphins. It’s an abysmal performance by a defense that has never had issues like this in the McDermott era. It’s something that needs to be figured out, and if it’s not, the Bills will not be going very far this season, and definitely won’t be hosting a playoff game. It shouldn’t be this difficult.

Coaching

I have a huge problem with coaching. I’ve had a huge problem with coaching for years. I’m going to preface this by saying, I don’t think we have a bad staff. I think McDermott is a good coach. But I think he has a ceiling. And that ceiling does not result in the Buffalo Bills winning their first ever Super Bowl. If they decide to keep rolling with him, I totally understand it. And honestly, it’s totally justifiable. But if the goal here is to win a Super Bowl, I just don’t think he can get us there. He’s too careful. Too conservative. And too bullish on doing things “the right way” than doing what works.

Wasting a reigning MVP is unforgiveable. Whether you want to blame that on McDermott, or offensive coordinator Joe Brady, I could listen to arguments for each. But it’s very clear that – whoever is responsible for the decision – the Bills do not prioritize putting the ball into the hands of one of the best players in the league. It’s malpractice of the highest form. Someone needs to be held accountable, and it’s probably going to start with Joe Brady.

Defensive coaching has been an issue as well. McDermott, regardless of what he says, had taken away play-calling duties from defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. And this is just a symptom of a bigger issue. If you have remove play-calling, you likely don’t have the right guy. It shouldn’t be this difficult.

What Now?

Overall, this sounds like the sky is falling. But they’re still 6-3. Still, more than likely, going to make the playoffs. But don’t appear as if they will be hosting a final playoff game in the old stadium like many fans had hoped. They definitely don’t look like they have a shot at the one-seed anymore. And I struggle to continue to see Super Bowl aspirations this season.

I hope they can figure something out. As of now, it doesn’t look good. They look like a wildcard team at best. And one that could very easily get bounced in the first round. I don’t have all, or really any, of the answers – but I hope they do. Because, honestly, it shouldn’t be this difficult.

Nickel City Picks: Week 10 NFL Predictions & Locks

An 8-6 record? Woof. Last week was rough for Nickel City Picks. Some I was more than happy to get wrong – looking at you Steelers and Bills for showing up – and some I was shocked to have gotten wrong – like the Lions, Packers and Cowboys. Then, there were some picked upsets that I was completely misguided on – actually mostly just one. The Falcons.

But, we’re back for Week 10. With a 28-14 record on our season since we started, we’re feeling okay with how things have shaken out. We would love to be right on the majority of these this week. For no other reason than laziness. It would make our weekly Power Rankings way easier to put together. Here are our Week 10 Picks. Take these as law. Prophecy. Destiny. Unless you’re putting money down. In which case, we never said a thing.

Last Week: 8-6

Season Record: 28-14

Thursday Night Football:

(2-6) Las Vegas Raiders @ (7-2) Denver Broncos – Pick: Denver Broncos

Sunday:

(3-5) Atlanta Falcons @ (7-2) Indianapolis Colts – Pick: Indianapolis Colts
(2-6) Cleveland Browns @ (1-7) New York Jets – Pick: Cleveland Browns
(3-5) Baltimore Ravens @ (4-4) Minnesota Vikings – Pick: Baltimore Ravens
(1-8) New Orleans Saints @ (5-4) Carolina Panthers – Pick: Carolina Panthers
(2-7) New York Giants @ (5-3) Chicago Bears – Pick: Chicago Bears
(7-2) New England Patriots @ (6-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(6-2) Buffalo Bills @ (2-7) Miami Dolphins – Pick: Buffalo Bills

This one is easy. Buffalo shouldn’t have an issue at all here. And I know Week 3 was closer than we would’ve liked. But I think Buffalo is hungry to prove that they have the juice. I’m expecting, not only a win, but a statement in this one.
 

(5-3) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (3-5) Houston Texans – Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
(3-5) Arizona Cardinals @ (6-2) Seattle Seahawks – Pick: Seattle Seahawks
(6-2) Los Angeles Rams @ (6-3) San Francisco 49ers – Pick: Los Angeles Rams
(5-3) Detroit Lions @ (3-6) Washington Commanders – Pick: Detroit Lions
(5-3) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (6-3) Los Angeles Chargers – Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday Night Football:

(6-2) Philadelphia Eagles @ (5-2-1) Green Bay Packers – Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Lock of the Week: Denver Broncos over Las Vegas Raiders

Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers over Los Angeles Chargers

Haven’t decided on your Sunday eats? Check out our Nickel City Cookbook!

Week 10 Preview: Bills Should Roll in Miami – If They Avoid the Trap

Buffalo looks to make it three straight behind a red-hot James Cook and a defense finding its stride.

It’s Week 10 in the NFL and the 6-2 Buffalo Bills are traveling to Miami to take on the 2-7 Dolphins. Despite a laundry list of injuries, this is a game that the Bills Mafia should feel comfortable with. Miami has struggled to put anything close to a competitive football team on the field – while the Buffalo Bills have started to find their footing on both sides of the ball.

Yet, division games are never a given. Playing these teams twice a year makes it so that your opponent is very familiar with you and your team. As such, division games should never be overlooked. And with a red hot Tampa Bay team coming to town next week, the Bills need to make sure this matchup with the Dolphins doesn’t turn into a trap game.

The Offense

Offensively, the Bills are starting to come to form. Josh Allen looked sharper against the Chiefs than he has all season, throwing for 275 yards – while James Cook, though injured, continues to dominate on the ground. The offensive line is looking like they have reached midseason form, right on time. And the tight ends continue to be a bright spot for production.

All of this coming to fruition, while the Dolphins defense has lost some pieces. Defensive End Jaelan Phillips was traded to Philadelphia. Former Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, safety Ifeatu Melifonwu, and linebacker Chop Robinson, have all missed practice this week. And all while the Dolphins rank 24th in the league in total defense.

The Bills offense should be licking its chops. While the Dolphins have proven to be competent in the passing game – a top ten unit in that category – their rush defense has been bottom five in the league so far. And just two weeks after James Cook put up over 200 yards on Carolina’s defense – and one week after he was the first back all season to post a hundred-yard outing on the Chiefs – the Dolphins should be concerned about keeping up with the Bills.

The Defense

The Bills defense has also come alive since the bye week. The return of cornerback Maxwell Hairston, as well as defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, has breathed new life into this unit. They delivered Patrick Mahomes the worst game of his career just one week ago. And, despite losing fellow returnee Michael Hoecht for the season, the defense should feel confident coming into this matchup vs the Dolphins.

The Dolphins offense has been struggling almost as much as the defense this year. The injury to wide receiver Tyreek Hill has left a void in what was once one of the most explosive units in the league. They haven’t quite seemed to find their footing since. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled to get anything going this year, seemingly regressing in almost every area of his game. And by every measure – points, rush yards, pass yards and total yards per game – the Dolphins offense ranks bottom ten in the league.

The Bills defense should capitalize on these struggles, and be able to continue building on back-to-back strong performances. If they can get pressure early, turnover opportunities should be there to create short fields for the offense. With both sides of the ball trending up, it appears that the Dolphins will be facing a buzz saw this week.

My Take

I don’t really have much more to say about this one. This should easily be a win for the Bills. Even with a banged up team, assuming James Cook is able to go, they should be able to control this game from the start. My only real concern is that of a trap game. If they can set the tone early and dominate the line of scrimmage, I think we’ll be seeing Mitch Trubisky sometime in the second half.

Prediction

I think it happens. I think we’re all bored by the end of this one. The Bills will dominate from the jump, and James Cook will build on his Offensive Player of the Year campaign.

Buffalo Bills – 38, Miami Dolphins - 17

Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 10

Week 9 resulted in some shakeups. Some surprising results. All of our top four teams from last week lost in their matchups. These power rankings are in disarray as a result. Par for the course for the NFL in November.

1.       Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (Last Week: 6) – Matthew Stafford is inevitable. He is not the MVP frontrunner, but he absolutely should be.

2.       Buffalo Bills (6-2) (Last Week: 8) – This week was such a big win to keep them competitive in the standings. The quest for the one seed is back on.

3.       Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (Last Week: 5) – Howie Roseman refuses to sit still. He has reloaded his team for another deep playoff run

4.       Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (Last Week: 1) – I’d love to say this is an indicator that Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones. It’s not. They’re still going to be just fine.

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (Last Week: 7) – Sometimes the best thing you can do, is to do nothing at all. Which is exactly what they did on their bye week.

6.       Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (Last Week: 10) – Sam Darnold is suddenly good. The Vikings are sad as a result. And now he’s got Rashid Shaheed to run next to JSN and Cooper Kupp.

7.       Denver Broncos (7-2) (Last Week: 9) – I want them to lose a game or two. But they keep winning. And I’d actually be okay with them beating the Chiefs a time or two.

8.       New England Patriots (7-2) (Last Week: 11) – They’re good. Potentially really good. But I still think there is going to be a surprising loss or two down the stretch.

9.       Detroit Lions (5-3) (Last Week: 2) – I still think that this is the most complete team in the league. But they can’t help but stub their toe a few times every season.

10.   Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (Last Week: 3) – A loss to an inferior Carolina Panthers team. The offense struggled to put together a drive that resulted in points. I struggled to put them in my top 10.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (Last Week: 4) – They still have an elite offense. But at 5-4 and with an extremely tough schedule coming up, I can’t consciously rank them higher.

12.   Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (Last Week: 14) – While they had an extremely impressive win over the Colts, the Steelers are still the Steelers. And I hope to see them in the playoffs.

13.   San Fransisco 49ers (6-3) (Last Week: 12) – It’s tough to fall in the power rankings after a win. But the win was against the Giants. And sometimes other teams are more impressive.

14.   Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (Last Week: 13) – I could write the exact same thing as I did for the 49ers here. They beat the Titans. I hope they can beat the Chiefs again down the road.

15.   Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (Last Week: 15) – They’re good? I guess? It’s the most reluctant version of being good. Jakobi Meyers doesn’t move the needle for me at all.

16.   Chicago Bears (5-3) (Last Week: 16) – I’m leaving them here. It’s where they currently belong. What a stupid win. This team is chaos. It’s great.

17.   Carolina Panthers (5-4) (Last Week: 19) – I don’t know what to make of this team. But I do know that hanging 40 on them looks pretty impressive for the Bills.

18.   Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (Last Week: 21) – I was pretty certain that JJ McCarthy was going to be a bust. I’m less certain now. A good division win in an insane division.

19.   Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (Last Week: 23) – They’ve move up. They’re probably going to continue to move up as they continue to get healthier. I’d rather not see them again this year.

20.   Houston Texans (3-5) (Last Week: 17) – Every time I think I know what this team is, they do something that makes me throw my arms up in the air and re-evaluate.

21.   Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (Last Week: 25) – If your backup QB gives you a better shot to win than your franchise QB, you’re in a bad spot.

22.   Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (Last Week: 18) – Not even Quinnen Williams can make this defense look competent. Any team playing against the Cowboys should hang up 14 more points than usual.

23.   Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (Last Week: 22) – They were so close to helping the Bills out. Instead, they disappointed the Mafia for the second time this season.

24.   Washington Commanders (3-6) (Last Week: 20) – What an unfortunate injury for Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota isn’t going to take you anywhere.

25.   Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (Last Week: 24) – Joe Flacco definitely gives them a shot to win games. They lost an extremely stupid one. That being said, there’s nothing about this team without Burrow that scares me in the slightest.

26.   New York Giants (2-7) (Last Week: 26) – They lost again. This is where they belong. Mostly because they’re still better than the teams that are below them.

27.   Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (Last Week: 29) – Geno Smith was good in Seattle. He is in a terrible situation in Vegas. As are Jeanty and Bowers. It’s bleak.

28.   Miami Dolphins (2-7) (Last Week: 27) – This team is nowhere. They needed to do what the Jets did and tear it down completely. Only trading Phillips is a half measure.

29.   Cleveland Browns (2-6) (Last Week: 28) – Get back to me when they figure out their quarterback situation. Gabriel? Sanders? Did they start the right one? Who knows? Who cares, even?

30.   New York Jets (1-7) (Last Week: 31) – They moved up a spot by default simply because the team that moved down as a result is willingly starting a worse quarterback than before.

31.   New Orleans Saints (1-8) (Last Week: 30) – They shouldn’t have moved away from Rattler. Even while losing. And yet, they did.

32.   Tennessee Titans (1-7) (Last Week: 32) – Do I have to actually write anything about this team?

Complete Win

Bills beat Chiefs for fifth straight time in the regular season, 28-21.

I have to start this by saying; I am so glad that I was wrong in my prediction from the Week 9 Preview piece. I vastly underestimated this team’s ability to stop any offense, let alone one that is as high powered as the Kansas City Chiefs.

This was a complete win. The section of this piece that I normally entitle The Bad is going to be much shorter than it has been in my first two recaps. The offense moved the ball with relative ease. The defense got pressure on the front end and the secondary came together when it mattered most. It’s easily their most impressive win of the season, and gives the fan base more hope than they’ve had since before the Patriots loss. Let’s start where it matters most – with what helped secure the W.

The Good

Let’s start with the defense. The front four had their best game of the season. By a lot. After the game, it was said that they made a point of staying in their rush lanes during practice in the week leading up to the game. It worked. Pressuring Mahomes on over 50% of drop backs, hitting him more than he ever has been hit in his career, and holding him to his lowest completion percentage of his career. They are directly responsible for making the Chiefs offense look clunky.

But, it wasn’t because Mahomes didn’t have time to throw. There were plenty of opportunities where he had more than enough time to get a pass off. The Bills secondary stepped up to shut those opportunities down, though. Adding Maxwell Hairston and Jordan Hancock into the secondary has breathed new life into the defense. The secondary looks faster, more athletic, and more cohesive overall as a result. This contributed massively to the defensive success in this game. And it’s something that Bills fans will be clamoring to see more of in the future.

The offense. James Cook did James Cook things. The guy is an animal. From where I was sitting, you could see the holes in the line clearly. There were times where there were no holes visible, and somehow Cook still found space for five extra yards. Another super impressive outing by Cook.

Allen came to life. Not completely to MVP form, but good enough considering his weapons. He and Dalton Kincaid continue to build their relationship, resulting in Kincaid blossoming into the player that we’d hoped he’d be when the Bills drafted him. Allen looks his way often, and it’s clear that him and Khalil Shakir are his first two options every time he drops back. He seemed significantly more comfortable than he has in weeks past when he drops back. Which is extremely impressive to have happen in what has so far been the biggest game of the Bills season.

The Bad

Allen is still turning down running options. He is definitely holding it back. There were multiple times throughout that game where he had a scramble option and turned it down. The worst of which being on a fourth and three early in the game where the running lane opened, and he instead threw a ten yard in, that resulted in an incomplete pass and turnover on downs. It’s not a stretch to say he’s saving it for the playoffs. But the opportunities are there now.

Part of that comes from the fact that the receivers are still struggling. The few times that Allen did scramble outside of the pocket, he was having trouble seeing anybody open. From witnessing it in person, I will say it’s because the receivers were blanketed. It’s still abundantly clear that the Bills need help at that position more than any other.

The coaching staff had a few questionable decisions as well. I should be clear here; overall, I thought they had a great game. However, recent games have made the few mistakes that they did make stand out more than normal. It’s because they keep making the same ones over and over. Two of them that stood out most to me were the timeout before the field goal, and a third and ten screen to Shakir that went nowhere. Both are trends for this staff. Taking unnecessary timeouts because his team wasn’t ready in situations where that won’t affect the outcome of the game is something that McDermott has been notorious for. Similarly, screen passes in situations that don’t warrant a screen pass is something that Brady has been notorious for. We can keep hoping they fix it, even though they likely won’t.

My Take

This win was huge. Especially after a Colts loss the Steelers. It not only keeps us squarely in the division race, but squarely in the race for the one seed as well. I still need to see some movement before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Receiver is the glaring need. Last week, I had safety as the secondary need. I’m downgrading that once again. I’d like to see a defensive end or defensive tackle after the injuries to Ed Oliver and Michael Hoecht. Keep the pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, and watch your young secondary go to work.

Nickel City Picks: Week 9 NFL Predictions & Locks

Our second dive into Nickel City Picks! Last week, we took some shots, and failed on a few. 8-5 on the week and the Jets and Dolphins ruined my life. The Texans beat the 9ers, the Snoop Huntley led Ravens beat the Bears, and the Cowboys got smoked by the Broncos. That’ll show me for putting any faith into the Cowboys.

Still a winning record on the week and overall, so hopefully you still think my opinion is worth something, here. Let’s get into Week 9.

Last Week: 8-5

Season Record: 20-8

Thursday Night Football:

(2-5) Baltimore Ravens @ (2-6) Miami Dolphins – Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Sunday:

(7-1) Indianapolis Colts @ (4-3) Pittsburgh Steelers – Pick: Indianapolis Colts

(6-2) Denver Broncos @ (3-4) Houston Texans – Pick: Denver Broncos

(5-3) Los Angeles Chargers @ (1-6) Tennessee Titans – Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

(3-4) Minnesota Vikings @ (5-2) Detroit Lions – Pick: Detroit Lions

(5-3) San Fransisco 49ers @ (2-5) New York Giants – Pick: San Fransisco 49ers

(4-4) Carolina Panthers @ (5-1-1) Green Bay Packers – Pick: Green Bay Packers

(4-3) Chicago Bears @ (3-4) Cincinnati Bengals – Pick: Chicago Bears

(3-4) Atlanta Falcons @ (6-2) New England Patriots – Pick: Atlanta Falcons

(5-2) Los Angeles Rams @ (1-7) New Orleans Saints – Pick: Los Angeles Rams

(4-3) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (2-5) Las Vegas Raiders – Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

(5-3) Kansas City Chiefs @ (5-2) Buffalo Bills – Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

This was painful to pick. Between going to the game this week, and being a Bills fan in general, I really want this to not only be a good game, but a Bills victory. Especially after picking an upset over the Patriots, this would be a huge win. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it. The Chiefs strengths are the Bills weaknesses. That’s normally not a good indicator. I’ve never hoped I was wrong more than I do right now.

(5-2) Seattle Seahawks @ (3-5) Washington Commanders – Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Monday Night Football:

(2-5) Arizona Cardinals @ (3-4) Dallas Cowboys – Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Rams over New Orleans Saints

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons over New England Patriots

Haven’t decided on your Sunday eats? Check out our Tailgate Thursday feature from our Nickel City Cookbook!

Week 9 Preview: Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo looks for redemption in Orchard Park as Mahomes and Kelce return to town.

Here it is, in Week 9. The game that everyone circles on the calendar every season. The game that is supposed to be an annual showdown of perennial NFL heavyweights. The second of three games that I was actually willing to go to this season.

Yet, it feels different this year. I’m significantly more nervous about this game than I have been in years past. To be clear, I always have nerves heading into this matchup. But most years, it’s a nervous excitement. This year feels almost like it did in 2020 – where the Chiefs had a dominant offense and the Bills have to prove that they belong.

I’d love to tell you to cue up Shout and Mr. Brightside. But I haven’t gotten there, yet.

Stopping the Chiefs

This has been the biggest concern for anybody that has faced the Chiefs this season. Their offense has been a machine. It has not been broken like it was the previous two years. And stopping them – let alone slowing them down – has been next to impossible.

They feature five wide receivers that the Bills would like to have just one of – and that doesn’t even include Travis Kelce or Noah Gray – and Patrick Mahomes seems more willing to scramble than ever.

Two weeks ago, I would have called this an impossible task. The Bills defense looked like it had nothing but holes on it. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t get to the quarterback, and receivers were finding gaps in the zone on a regular basis. Now, I have a little more hope.

The defense looked like it had a bit more pop in last weeks game against the Carolina Panthers. The returns of Maxwell Hairston, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi gave the defense life. The deployment of rookie safety Jordan Hancock, when paired up with Cole Bishop, made the back end of the defense look considerably faster. And the emergence of rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker made running the ball against this team difficult for the first time all season.

Still, the sample size of the defense stepping up is small. One game, even. It results in fans of the Bills cautiously approaching this game with even the slightest bit of optimism. It may have to be the track meet that we’ve all grown accustomed to in this matchup over the years.

The Offense Needs to Show Up

This has been the first time this season that many of us have felt this way. The offense needs to show up and show up big. It’s very rare that a team can win a game the previous week 40-9 and have the running back rush for 200+ and the fan base somehow feels worse.

This is where the passing game needs to fire. It would be great if the running game did, too. But this is where Josh Allen needs to look like Josh Allen. Nothing would ignite that stadium like another 30 point performance where Allen picks apart a Chiefs defense. It would inspire more confidence than we’ve seen all season. And it might be completely necessary in order to walk out with a victory.

The path to success here doesn’t seem like a difficult one for the Bills, on paper. The Bills love to run short pass plays, which will play to their favor in this matchup. If there is a weak point on the Chiefs defense, it’s defending swing passes to the opponents running backs. And if the Bills can find success there, along with passing to Shakir and Kincaid, it will burst the running game wide open and allow James Cook to build on the already incredible season that he’s having.

It sounds great in theory. But, this is still a Steve Spagnuolo led defense, who tends to find answers for his teams weaknesses. Look for him to send multiple blitz packages at Allen, and dare the Bills receiving options to get open fast enough for Allen to beat them.

My Take

I have to be honest here, this game scares me. The Chiefs have the ability to suck the life out of that stadium early. And if they manage to do that, watch out. If the Bills can manage some early stops though – brace yourself, it’s going to be a wild one. A couple of key stops, as well as involving James Cook more in the passing game, could just result in seventy thousand Bills fans singing Mr. Brightside at the end of the game.

Prediction

I don’t know how to do this without sounding doom and gloom. This is a game that I can see going one of two ways – the game is a nail biter and coin flip, or the Chiefs win big. I don’t see an in between. And I hope I’m wrong. I’d much rather be partying during a Buffalo route of the Chiefs.

Kansas City 37, Buffalo 31

Sabres Recap: Overtime is Spooky

Sabres turn into ghosts in three straight OT losses

What to say about this team? They need a priest. An exorcist. Or maybe just a factory reset. Three straight overtime losses is going to leave a sour taste in anybody’s mouth. Especially when the team was up 3-1 after the second period in last night’s tilt vs the Bruins. Especially when, in two of those three games, the losses came to teams that are supposed to be basement dwellers in the Blue Jackets and Bruins.

Still, five points in the last four games isn’t terrible. I said in last weeks recap, where I got the number of games they had this week wrong, that I’d like to see at least four points in those next three games. They got there. And added that fifth point in the fourth game. Who am I to complain about how they did it?

It almost feels stunning to compare this team to the Bills in any way, but after three straight overtime losses, my complaints are exactly the same as they are with the Bills. It’s how they look while doing it.

There have been some bright spots. Alex Lyon has been by far their best player to start the season. He is clearly their most reliable option in between the pipes, but there seems to be opportunity for inconsistency. Last night’s game against the Bruins is evidence of that. It was clearly his worst performance of the season, in a game that even an average performance would have secured a regulation W.

Josh Doan continues to be a great find for the team. He had another solid week this week, and if he can keep it up, will be a cornerstone piece for any idea of a playoff run. Even Mattias Samuelsson is looking like the player that the team signed to a long term deal before all of the injuries.

There have been some bumps in the road though. Some predictable, some not. UPL was in net for one game this week, and I’ve decided since then, that I’d be very okay with never seeing him in between the pipes for the Sabres again. An unfortunate thought, considering his current contract is borderline unmovable.

Rasmus Dahlin has unfortunately not been himself this year, either. I don’t know how much blame I want to put on him for it. The man had himself a rough summer. And he is showing flashes of being more of himself. But there are clear mistakes that he doesn’t tend to make that are costing the team. Hopefully he snaps out of it soon, and if so, I think it’ll give a big boost to the team.

The three-goalie experiment is already exhausting. To me, if you have three goalies, you aren’t confident that you have a good goalie. A decision needs to be made, and I don’t think it’s a particularly difficult one. Put Colten Ellis in for another game, have him prove he has the juice this season, and then do something, anything, with UPL. The season will only benefit from it.

This week, the team has a three game home stand. Saturday vs the Capitals, Tuesday vs the Mammoth, and Thursday vs the Blues. Much like last week, I am very okay with getting another four points out of those three games.

Oh, and Alex Tuch scored this week, which means we’re doing 10% off the Every Time We Tuch hoodie in our shop for the upcoming week!

Nickel City Power Rankings: Week 9

Nickel City Power Rankings

Everyone else does power rankings – why not us? Here’s where we think the league stands at this point:

1.       Indianapolis Colts (7-1) – I keep waiting for Daniel Jones to fall off. It only results in disappointment. Even if he does, the way Jonathan Taylor is playing, I think they’re fine.

2.       Detroit Lions (5-2) – They’re scary. They always tend to drop a game or two, but they continue to be scary. The most complete team in the league.

3.       Green Bay Packers (5-1-1) – Jordan Love keeps getting better. This was his best game of the year. And Tucker Kraft is an animal.

4.       Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) – The two years of their offense looking broken were fun. They’re back to looking like the most terrifying offense in football. They have five receivers on their roster that I would love to have one of.

5.       Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) – It’s weird to say about a 6-2 team, but they don’t look as scary as normal. They look beatable. But 6-2 is 6-2.

6.       Los Angeles Rams (5-2) – Matthew Stafford might be the most underrated quarterback of our time. He’s great, and rarely gets put in the greats. The Rams are good.

7.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) – I gave up my tickets for this one. Really wish I hadn’t. “Why would I want to watch the Bucs” I said. Turns out, Baker Mayfield is so fun to watch.

8.       Buffalo Bills (5-2) – It’s nice to know they can win (by a lot) on the back of James Cook. It would be really nice to know that the passing game could also win you games, if it’s needed.

9.       Denver Broncos (6-2) – This is a team that I would like for them to drop a game or two. And I think they will. But that defense is great. And Bo Nix looks like the real deal.

10.   Seattle Seahawks (5-2) – JSN looks elite. And Sam Darnold is good enough to get him the ball. This team is frisky.

11.   New England Patriots (6-2) – It was jarring to see that I had them at 11 to me, too. They’re good. Drake Maye is a franchise quarterback. I still think they drop a few games, despite a cupcake schedule.

12.   San Fransisco 49ers (5-3) – They are still managing a winning record with McCorkle Jones playing quarterback. A loss last week, but they’re clearly still a decent team.

13.   Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) – I would ask what happened to the team that we saw at the start of the year, but it’s the Chargers. This is what they do. The most inconsistent team in the league.

14.   Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) – I mean, they’re serviceable. Right? Aaron Rodgers was never going to turn them into world beaters. They’ll somehow go 9-8 and sneak in as a 7 seed if that’s not good enough to win their division.

15.   Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) – I want to like this team. I want to like Trevor Lawrence and Travis Hunter. I just can’t get myself there.

16.   Chicago Bears (4-3) – I really thought that they could win their fifth straight game. I thought they were going to do it. But they didn’t. They’re a middle of the pack team.

17.   Houston Texans (3-4) – What a weird team. They don’t look good to my eyes, and somehow still pull out a few wins. I’m actually kind of nervous about when the Bills play them in a few weeks.

18.   Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1) – If this team had even the semblance of a defense, they could be really good. What they really could use is an elite, playmaking pass rusher. Right, Jerry?

19.   Carolina Panther (4-4) – They could be good. Dave Canales needs to realize who his best back is. And, even after the Buffalo game, I think Dalton gives them a better shot to win than Young.

20.   Washington Commanders (3-5) – Even when Jayden Daniels has played, they seem to have regressed this year. I think they can still turn it on, but he needs to be in the lineup to do so.

21.   Minnesota Vikings (3-5) – If you’re a Minnesota Vikings fan and you don’t miss Sam Darnold, you need to start missing Sam Darnold. Trade with the Falcons to get Kirk Cousins back, or something. Please.

22.   Atlanta Falcons (3-4) – I really don’t know what to make of this team. And can’t believe they beat the Bills. That’s going to look like a bad loss. Woof.

23.   Baltimore Ravens (2-5) – How many 2-5 teams have ever had a legitimate shot to come back and win their division. I actually think that’s possible here. But I also hope they drop at least three more games.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) – Is Joe Flacco elite!? No. But he might be serviceable enough to get you through. To keep you in it. Don’t let them stay in the race until Burrow is back.

25.   Arizona Cardinals (2-5) – Imagine being the Cardinals. Your franchise QB gets hyped up every year, and every year is a disappointment. And then Jacoby Brissett comes in and somehow makes you look more competent. Yikes.

26.   New York Giants (2-6) – People were talking as if Jaxson Dart was going to come in and save Brian Daboll’s job. I don’t know if that happens, at this point.

27.   Miami Dolphins (2-6) – Yeah, I’m shocked that I have them this high, too. This is a team that looks like it needs a complete overhaul. Trade Waddell to the Bills, please.

28.   Cleveland Browns (2-6) – The defense is the only thing that keeps them above 30. But even a 5 sack performance by Miles Garrett can’t even win them a game. Should have kept Flacco.

29.   Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) – I don’t know what to say. They have Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty and don’t use either of them correctly. The game has passed Pete Carroll by.

30.   New Orleans Saints (1-6) – This team just posted not only that Tyler Shough is their starter, but declared that the future is now.

31.   New York Jets (1-6) – They were excited about Tyrod Taylor starting, only for him to immediately get hurt in practice. Aaron Glenn is going to be one-and-done.

32.   Tennessee Titans (1-6) – This has to be, if not unanimously, than as close to unanimous as possible, the worst team in the league. I can’t believe they’ve even won one game.

Cooked: Bills Roll 40–9, But Allen’s Still Searching

The Buffalo Bills went to Carolina yesterday to take on the Panthers, and walked out with a seemingly effortless 40-9 victory. James Cook stole the show, going for over 200 yards rushing and adding a couple of scores in there, as well. It was the kind of game that allowed you to sit back and not get too stressed out over. Let’s get into it.

The Good

We’ll start where we already previewed – James Cook. The man has been on a tear as of late – and yesterday was no different. He continued to prove that he has earned every bit of the contract extension he received at the start of the season – and in the process, make fools out of everyone that questioned whether he deserved it. Myself included. It’s incredible how he can turn a run that is seemingly bottled up and slither his way through a hole and turn it into a ten yard gain.

The defense played great yesterday, too. They forced turnovers and got to the quarterback. It’s what a Sean McDermott defense is designed to look like. You could tell that the returns of Ogunjobi, Hoecht, and Hairston, gave the defense some juice heading into this one. They looked fired up and ready to roll. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves, though. Rico Dowdle still posted 6.75 yards per carry. That needs to get cleaned up before they play better teams. But the D forced turnovers at opportune times to prevent that from being much of a factor.

The Bad

Josh Allen. Seriously. I hate writing this. But something is wrong. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but I have guesses. We know that the Bills receiving corps isn’t the greatest. But we also know that Allen has turned down open opportunities recently. It seems like he doesn’t trust his guys to get open, so he reverts to hero ball Josh. He’s not trusting his eyes. He’s not that confident assassin that we’ve seen for the past four years. And many times as of late, when he does pull the trigger, he’s been off target.

As I said, I only have guesses as to why this is. And hero ball is one of them. I think he’s pressing knowing that it’s taking more for his receivers to get open. The second quarter ten second scramble that resulted in a sack is evidence of this. In those ten seconds, it was hard to see anybody that wasn’t covered. A seasoned quarterback recognizes that early, as Josh did. The difference is that he scrambled around before taking a sack rather than throwing it into the fifteenth row of the stands. His rhythm seems off. I feel like Joe Brady needs to cook up some easy passes early in the game to get Josh engaged.

My Take

Overall, it was a good win. The run game was incredible. The offensive line continued to be the best unit on the team. The defense took a step in the right direction. If this team can figure out the pass game, they’re going to be firing on all cylinders.

In my recap of the season so far, I said that I thought that the highest priority for the trade deadline was safety, immediately followed by wide receiver. I think both of those are still the highest priorities, but I think they have flipped after this game. Get a receiver, grab a safety, and then see how different of a team this looks like.

Week 9 Outlook

We all know it’s Kansas City week. The way the Chiefs are playing, it’s going to be a nerve wracking game. Get a receiver on Monday and the energy of this week will completely shift. Then hang on for dear life, and hope your defense can force a couple of stops. Overall, I think the Bills can still hang with the best teams in the league – we just can’t afford to come out flat in this one.

Nickel City Picks: Week 8

This was not something we had originally planned on doing. We don’t need a new blog every day, right? Well, guess what? Here’s another day, and another blog post. This one, we’re going to have fun, though. Last week, I didn’t do a picks piece, but I did place some bets, so you’re just going to have to take my word for what happened.

I had every single game bet on. Got some good W’s (Bengals over Steelers, what up!?) and had three total losses on the week. The Dolphins lost to the Browns (lol), the Chargers lost to the Colts, and the Falcons lost to the 49ers. So we’re counting it as our first week of picks because we make the rules around here. Let’s get into this week.

Week 7 Picks: 12-3

Season Total: 12-3

Week 8 Picks:

Thursday Night Football:

(3-3) Minnesota Vikings @ (4-3) Los Angeles Chargers - Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday:

(0-7) New York Jets @ (3-4) Cincinnati Bengals – Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

(2-5) New York Giants @ (5-2) Philadelphia Eagles – Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

(5-2) San Francisco 49ers @ (2-4) Houston Texans – Pick: San Francisco 49ers

(4-2) Chicago Bears @ (1-5) Baltimore Ravens – Pick: Chicago Bears

(2-5) Cleveland Browns @ (5-2) New England Patriots – Pick: New England Patriots

(4-2) Buffalo Bills @ (4-3) Carolina Panthers – Pick: Buffalo Bills

(1-6) Miami Dolphins @ (3-3) Atlanta Falcons – Pick: Atlanta Falcons

(5-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (1-6) New Orleans Saints – Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(3-3) Dallas Cowboys @ (5-2) Denver Broncos – Pick: Dallas Cowboys

(1-6) Tennessee Titans @ (6-1) Indianapolis Colts – Pick: Indianapolis Colts

(4-1) Green Bay Packers @ (4-2) Pittsburgh Steelers – Pick: Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football:

(3-4) Washington Commanders @ (4-3) Kansas City Chiefs – Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Lock of the Week: Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans

Upset of the Week: Dallas Cowboys over Denver Broncos

Week 8 Preview: Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

It’s Week 8 and we’re coming off of three weeks of misery. That hasn’t been the case too many times in the Josh Allen era. Having to deal with two straight losses heading into a bye week has sent the Mafia into a tailspin. I’ve been no different.

Early in the year, I was making plans to close out Highmark Stadium at the AFC Championship game. Even selling my tickets to the Jets game to close the regular season seemed safe. That has since changed. I’m wondering if I made a mistake. I don’t even know if we’ll see a home playoff game at seasons end.

So how does that translate to this week? What can the Bills do to restore confidence?

The Bills Are Getting Help

The team has players coming back and not a moment too soon. Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi and Maxwell Hairston are all back at practice. Hoecht and Ogunjobi coming off of suspension, Hairston off of IR.

So how much will this help? Neither Hoecht nor Ogunjobi move the needle for me individually in regards to how I view this defense. That being said, I don’t see how the combination of the two doesn’t help the defense. They need the juice, and hopefully they’re getting it.

Maxwell Hairston on the other hand, will be under a microscope, at least in my eyes. I don’t have super high hopes for an immediate impact here. I don’t even have high hopes for playing time – McDermott has historically taken his time integrating players in this situation. But, Hairston can’t be much worse than we’ve seen. Tre White is a shell of his former self. Hairston doesn’t have a high bar to clear to be an upgrade over the production we’ve seen from that position so far. If he shows flashes, I’m calling it a W.

Ultimately, the defense has to show that they can put it all together. Rico Dowdle has been on a tear this year. But Andy Dalton – or Bryce Young if you want to believe that there’s actually a chance he can play this week – should not be able to pick apart your defense. Dalton is probably more capable of it than Young. But Dalton is aged and less capable of it than he once was. This is an opportunity to shut down an inferior offense and make a statement.

The Offense Needs to Move

This is my biggest gripe. You have a Ferrari at quarterback but you’re unwilling to push it past 30 mph. Get the offense firing on all cylinders, and you’ll hear a collective sigh of relief from an entire fan base. I can completely understand wanting to balance both passing and running games. I get it. But you’re not going to hang with the top teams in the league without being able to open up the passing game.

Unleash Allen in this game against the Panthers, and you’ll see a much more confident fan base heading into a home game against the Chiefs. If it continues to struggle, that is going to be a very tense crowd in Highmark Stadium, that could very easily get taken out of the game early by Patrick Mahomes.

Jaycee Horn and Derrick Brown are my biggest concerns on that defense. Horn doesn’t shadow the opponents best receivers. Move Shakir – or Kincaid if he plays – away from him and profit. And ideally, move Brown away from running lanes. Keep those two away from the ball, and you should be able to move the chains.

My Take

I go back and forth on this game. There are times that I think about it and think that the Bills are going to come out and make a statement. There are other times where I think the issues with this team show up again this week. I think it’s a pivotal game for not only the psyche of the fan base, but the team as well. And I keep going back to McDermott’s undefeated record coming off of the bye. 8-0 off of the bye is not an accident.

Prediction

All things considered, at the time of writing this – I’m feeling confident. I think that they’ll come out and remind everyone who they are. I don’t think it’ll look as difficult as it has the past two games. There will be difficult moments, just not as bad.

Buffalo Bills – 34, Carolina Panthers - 24

They…Might Be Good?

UPL? Levi? Who’s going to fix the Sabres’ goaltending? Turns out — Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis. Ever heard of them? Me neither. But that’s what they’ve done to this point. This season has undoubtedly already had some ups and downs through seven games, but one of the biggest bright spots has been between the pipes. Insert Paul Rudd saying “Look at us. Who would’ve thought? Not me.”

It started off abysmal. I thought I was going to be coming in here to write this first piece, and gritting my teeth through it. As I laid out in the intro to this blog, I’ve fallen out of love with this team. It’s been too much pain. Too much losing. Too many head coaches. Arguably not enough GM’s. But here I am, staring at my notes and thinking, do I really know this team?

It started off the way the seasons have gone for each of the past 14 seasons. 0-3. Getting severely outplayed. Barely looking like they wanted to be there. I looked at the schedule at this point and saw the next two games were against Colorado and Florida. Woof. We’re staring right in the face of an 0-5 start, right? Right?

Wrong. Wouldn’t you know it, we have ourselves a hockey team that showed up. Two extremely impressive wins against a couple of the best teams in the league. Anchored by not only strong goaltending, but strong defense as well. The blue line has been one of the brightest spots on this team, without even having Kesselring in the lineup yet. It’s how they were able to shut down a significantly more talented Florida Panthers team. It’s how they will be able to win games this year.

But, it also could be the reason for losing some games this year. There have been multiple periods, even outside of the first three games, where goal scoring has seemed like a heavy lift. The first period of the Canadiens game on Monday likely cost us the W for that exact reason. The offensive pressure was non-existent and the Habs were skating circles around the team. The second and third periods picked back up, sure, but it wasn’t enough to get them over the hump.

There have been a few standout games, though. The Colorado game seemed as if the team was saving all of the scoring from the first three games for that one. I don’t know if the Sabres will score eight goals in a game again this season. And this weeks Wednesday night game against the Red Wings was the most complete win I’ve seen from this team in years.

This week we get a home and home with the Leafs starting Friday night. That team is in shambles. And then Wednesday against the Blue Jackets. We can only hope for four points out of those three games.

Ultimately, I’m cautiously optimistic about this team moving forward. I think it’ll be a more competitive season than we’ve seen in years. I feel like I’m watching a borderline playoff team at this point in time. I don’t think it’ll be enough to get the entire fan base back, but it’ll certainly perk some people up. Myself included. I may have fallen out of love with this team, but I’m ready to get hurt again.

The Season So Far

Bye weeks are boring. I get the purpose — the players need to rest, reset, whatever. But they’re still boring and should probably be launched into the sun. Obviously, I’m joking (mostly). The only real change is the standings move while you just sit there helpless.

So, in our first week of coverage, we figured we’d recap what we missed through six Bills games. Because, honestly, there’s a lot to unpack.

The Good

There’s honestly been quite a bit. For three and a half of the first four games, the offense looked right. Josh took care of the ball. James Cook has earned every bit of that extension — he’s been electric every time he touches it. The offensive line? Exceptional. Dalton Kincaid? Turning into the Tight End that we thought he would be, right before our eyes.

Defensively, there have been bright spots, even if fewer. Deone Walker has been a fantastic Day 3 find. Shaq Thompson’s quietly been one of the best linebackers on the roster. And rookie Cole Bishop is on the upswing, growing pains and all.

The Ravens and Jets games were statement wins. The team looked unstoppable — and that Ravens game? Easily the best I’ve ever been to. It reestablished the juggernaut identity we’ve grown used to. All three phases worked against the Jets, and the offense looked like it was toying with its food versus the Dolphins and Saints.

But even in those highs, not everything was perfect.

The Bad

Let’s start where it has to start — the safeties. It’s been abysmal. Stomach-turning. Taylor Rapp is a defensive liability on nearly every snap. They need an upgrade here more than anywhere else on the roster. Bishop, though trending upward, has had his share of costly mistakes too.

And the hits don’t stop there. Tre White looks like a shell of his former self — and it hurts to even write that. He’s been one of my favorites for years. The Milano–Bernard duo never found its footing either. Milano, another fan favorite, can’t stay healthy, and when he’s out there, he hasn’t been his usual impact player. Bernard? Outside of that game-sealing INT vs. the Dolphins, he’s looked lost.

On offense, the receivers deserve all the smoke. They can’t get open. Shakir makes it happen sometimes, but beyond that, they’ve mostly been invisible. Keon Coleman has been exactly what I thought he’d be coming out of college — and that’s not a compliment. He can jump out of the stadium, but it only turns into results about twenty percent of the time. Josh Palmer, before the Falcons game, was a non-factor — no matter how much Beane tried to sell it to the WGR guys as an upgrade.

And honestly? Josh Allen hasn’t looked right in the last two games. The Patriots contained him, and the Falcons made him look flat-out lost. He looked gun-shy — and that’s not something we’ve said about him in years.

Coaching hasn’t helped either. I’ve never seen Sean McDermott punt on as many critical fourth downs as he has this year. Joe Brady hasn’t looked ready for teams that adjust to what Buffalo does well. And Bobby Babich? The jury’s still out. To his credit, he’s made mid-game adjustments, but too often this defense looks confused and commits avoidable penalties.

The Outlook

We all know it’s been an up-and-down year. But in a season where the Chiefs started 0–2 and the Ravens 1–5, this was our chance to capitalize. The sky isn’t falling at 4–2, but there are some alarming trends — and we’re now in a dogfight for the AFC East, let alone the one seed.

There is help coming. Hoecht and Ogunjobi will be solid additions, though I don’t think either moves the needle for this defense. Max Hairston will be a welcome addition to the secondary, but he’s still a rookie with limited exposure to the system and NFL speed.

Even so, I think the Bills have to make a trade — preferably two. A week ago, I would’ve said wide receiver (again — I’ve been saying it for years). But now? Safety has to be priority number one. Get that fixed first, then worry about receiver immediately after.

As it stands, I’m not worried about Carolina. We should handle them. The Chiefs, though? That’s different. They look every bit as dangerous as ever, and with this defense as it stands, they could easily put up fifty.

Closing Thoughts

Ultimately, I think we’ll be fine. Not great — just fine. I had dreams of the final game at Highmark Stadium being the one where we hosted the AFC Championship. I’m not as confident in that now, but I could still see this team locking up the two or three seed.

If we somehow lose the division, I don’t see us falling lower than five. I still have hope — real hope — that they figure it out. And as always, we’ll ride it with them, through every high and low.