Week 9 Preview: Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo looks for redemption in Orchard Park as Mahomes and Kelce return to town.

Here it is, in Week 9. The game that everyone circles on the calendar every season. The game that is supposed to be an annual showdown of perennial NFL heavyweights. The second of three games that I was actually willing to go to this season.

Yet, it feels different this year. I’m significantly more nervous about this game than I have been in years past. To be clear, I always have nerves heading into this matchup. But most years, it’s a nervous excitement. This year feels almost like it did in 2020 – where the Chiefs had a dominant offense and the Bills have to prove that they belong.

I’d love to tell you to cue up Shout and Mr. Brightside. But I haven’t gotten there, yet.

Stopping the Chiefs

This has been the biggest concern for anybody that has faced the Chiefs this season. Their offense has been a machine. It has not been broken like it was the previous two years. And stopping them – let alone slowing them down – has been next to impossible.

They feature five wide receivers that the Bills would like to have just one of – and that doesn’t even include Travis Kelce or Noah Gray – and Patrick Mahomes seems more willing to scramble than ever.

Two weeks ago, I would have called this an impossible task. The Bills defense looked like it had nothing but holes on it. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t get to the quarterback, and receivers were finding gaps in the zone on a regular basis. Now, I have a little more hope.

The defense looked like it had a bit more pop in last weeks game against the Carolina Panthers. The returns of Maxwell Hairston, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi gave the defense life. The deployment of rookie safety Jordan Hancock, when paired up with Cole Bishop, made the back end of the defense look considerably faster. And the emergence of rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker made running the ball against this team difficult for the first time all season.

Still, the sample size of the defense stepping up is small. One game, even. It results in fans of the Bills cautiously approaching this game with even the slightest bit of optimism. It may have to be the track meet that we’ve all grown accustomed to in this matchup over the years.

The Offense Needs to Show Up

This has been the first time this season that many of us have felt this way. The offense needs to show up and show up big. It’s very rare that a team can win a game the previous week 40-9 and have the running back rush for 200+ and the fan base somehow feels worse.

This is where the passing game needs to fire. It would be great if the running game did, too. But this is where Josh Allen needs to look like Josh Allen. Nothing would ignite that stadium like another 30 point performance where Allen picks apart a Chiefs defense. It would inspire more confidence than we’ve seen all season. And it might be completely necessary in order to walk out with a victory.

The path to success here doesn’t seem like a difficult one for the Bills, on paper. The Bills love to run short pass plays, which will play to their favor in this matchup. If there is a weak point on the Chiefs defense, it’s defending swing passes to the opponents running backs. And if the Bills can find success there, along with passing to Shakir and Kincaid, it will burst the running game wide open and allow James Cook to build on the already incredible season that he’s having.

It sounds great in theory. But, this is still a Steve Spagnuolo led defense, who tends to find answers for his teams weaknesses. Look for him to send multiple blitz packages at Allen, and dare the Bills receiving options to get open fast enough for Allen to beat them.

My Take

I have to be honest here, this game scares me. The Chiefs have the ability to suck the life out of that stadium early. And if they manage to do that, watch out. If the Bills can manage some early stops though – brace yourself, it’s going to be a wild one. A couple of key stops, as well as involving James Cook more in the passing game, could just result in seventy thousand Bills fans singing Mr. Brightside at the end of the game.

Prediction

I don’t know how to do this without sounding doom and gloom. This is a game that I can see going one of two ways – the game is a nail biter and coin flip, or the Chiefs win big. I don’t see an in between. And I hope I’m wrong. I’d much rather be partying during a Buffalo route of the Chiefs.

Kansas City 37, Buffalo 31

Week 8 Preview: Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

It’s Week 8 and we’re coming off of three weeks of misery. That hasn’t been the case too many times in the Josh Allen era. Having to deal with two straight losses heading into a bye week has sent the Mafia into a tailspin. I’ve been no different.

Early in the year, I was making plans to close out Highmark Stadium at the AFC Championship game. Even selling my tickets to the Jets game to close the regular season seemed safe. That has since changed. I’m wondering if I made a mistake. I don’t even know if we’ll see a home playoff game at seasons end.

So how does that translate to this week? What can the Bills do to restore confidence?

The Bills Are Getting Help

The team has players coming back and not a moment too soon. Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi and Maxwell Hairston are all back at practice. Hoecht and Ogunjobi coming off of suspension, Hairston off of IR.

So how much will this help? Neither Hoecht nor Ogunjobi move the needle for me individually in regards to how I view this defense. That being said, I don’t see how the combination of the two doesn’t help the defense. They need the juice, and hopefully they’re getting it.

Maxwell Hairston on the other hand, will be under a microscope, at least in my eyes. I don’t have super high hopes for an immediate impact here. I don’t even have high hopes for playing time – McDermott has historically taken his time integrating players in this situation. But, Hairston can’t be much worse than we’ve seen. Tre White is a shell of his former self. Hairston doesn’t have a high bar to clear to be an upgrade over the production we’ve seen from that position so far. If he shows flashes, I’m calling it a W.

Ultimately, the defense has to show that they can put it all together. Rico Dowdle has been on a tear this year. But Andy Dalton – or Bryce Young if you want to believe that there’s actually a chance he can play this week – should not be able to pick apart your defense. Dalton is probably more capable of it than Young. But Dalton is aged and less capable of it than he once was. This is an opportunity to shut down an inferior offense and make a statement.

The Offense Needs to Move

This is my biggest gripe. You have a Ferrari at quarterback but you’re unwilling to push it past 30 mph. Get the offense firing on all cylinders, and you’ll hear a collective sigh of relief from an entire fan base. I can completely understand wanting to balance both passing and running games. I get it. But you’re not going to hang with the top teams in the league without being able to open up the passing game.

Unleash Allen in this game against the Panthers, and you’ll see a much more confident fan base heading into a home game against the Chiefs. If it continues to struggle, that is going to be a very tense crowd in Highmark Stadium, that could very easily get taken out of the game early by Patrick Mahomes.

Jaycee Horn and Derrick Brown are my biggest concerns on that defense. Horn doesn’t shadow the opponents best receivers. Move Shakir – or Kincaid if he plays – away from him and profit. And ideally, move Brown away from running lanes. Keep those two away from the ball, and you should be able to move the chains.

My Take

I go back and forth on this game. There are times that I think about it and think that the Bills are going to come out and make a statement. There are other times where I think the issues with this team show up again this week. I think it’s a pivotal game for not only the psyche of the fan base, but the team as well. And I keep going back to McDermott’s undefeated record coming off of the bye. 8-0 off of the bye is not an accident.

Prediction

All things considered, at the time of writing this – I’m feeling confident. I think that they’ll come out and remind everyone who they are. I don’t think it’ll look as difficult as it has the past two games. There will be difficult moments, just not as bad.

Buffalo Bills – 34, Carolina Panthers - 24