Week 12 Preview: Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Bills look to keep their foot on the gas as they face top defense in the league.
It’s Week 12 and the Buffalo Bills are traveling to Houston to take on the 4-5 Texans on Thursday Night Football. This is a game that, by all accounts, Buffalo should be able to get a W. Davis Mills is starting for the Texans in place of CJ Stroud, who is out with a concussion – and that should bode well for a Bills defense that is still searching for some answers.
On the Bills side of things, rumor has it that wide receiver Keon Coleman will not be dressed for the second straight week. The Bills offense looks to build off last weeks momentum that saw the NFL’s reigning MVP find the endzone on six occasions. But it won’t be easy as the Texans boast the leagues best defense, who are capable of turning any game into a dog fight.
All Gas, No Brakes
The old mantra in the league is that defense wins championships. It’s something that most Bills fans would only partially agree with right now, and it’s because we know what the offense is capable of. Last weeks tilt vs the Bucs was evidence of that. And if it’s something that can be pulled off vs this Texans defense, it might be their most impressive performance to date. It won’t come easy. Texans defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses. It’s slightly concerning considering this is a season where Josh Allen has looked less comfortable in the pocket than he has in maybe the last five years.
But he is the reigning MVP and we have seen him step up in the biggest moments before. He looked far more comfortable last week with wide receiver Tyrell Shavers getting more run on the outside, as well as former-Bill/future-Bill Gabe Davis being brought back into the fold. It seemed to click things back into place a week ago. And if it continues to look that way against this defense, the confidence of the team, and the fan base, will skyrocket. Considering what the conversation was just a week and a half ago, that would be incredibly impressive to see.
After all, James Cook’s best use in this game might be as a passing weapon. The Texans have the third ranked rush defense in the entire league. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league, making runs up the middle difficult, even in light boxes. And linebacker Aziz Al-Shair is rangy enough to meet Cook on the outside if they try that, as well. The Bills would be best served to use their quick passing game in this one. But even then, the Texans also have the third ranked pass defense. Derek Stingley could still pose a problem.
No Run D? No Problem
The jury has been out on the Bills defense this year. The pass defense looks much improved, with second year Safety Cole Bishop playing out of his mind, and rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston looking like he belongs. But the run defense has still been suspect – and I think that is being generous. The Bills run defense ranks 31st in the league heading into Week 12. And it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon.
Thankfully, it shouldn’t be an issue in this one. The Texans run offense has been weak this season. Ranked 23rd in the league - and onto fourth round rookie running back Woody Marks - if there was a game to get the run defense right this would be it. But it shouldn’t be their primary concern. If the offense does it’s job, the Texans should be playing catch up for most of the game.
If they can get out to an early lead, the Texans will have to rely on quarterback Davis Mills to move the ball. A tall task for any backup quarterback. But he has weapons. Wide receiver Nico Collins should have the Bills secondary gravitating his way. But outside of that? The Bills seemingly don’t have a ton more to worry about with the passing game. The Texans offensive line is a travesty, and the Bills should be looking to create pressure and make things difficult for Mills.
My Take
I’m cautiously optimistic about this one. I think the Bills at very least attempt to keep running the offense wide open. But it’s not going to come without speed bumps against a defense like this. It’ll definitely be lower scoring than we’re used to. And there is a small chance that that could bode well for the Texans. After all, they have won two straight.
Prediction
This is one that I don’t think will be a blowout. I think the Texans will keep the Bills in check for the most part. But I also think that the Bills defense will dominate the Texans offense, giving the Bills offense more opportunities to put up points.
Buffalo Bills – 24, Houston Texans – 14