Complete Win

Bills beat Chiefs for fifth straight time in the regular season, 28-21.

I have to start this by saying; I am so glad that I was wrong in my prediction from the Week 9 Preview piece. I vastly underestimated this team’s ability to stop any offense, let alone one that is as high powered as the Kansas City Chiefs.

This was a complete win. The section of this piece that I normally entitle The Bad is going to be much shorter than it has been in my first two recaps. The offense moved the ball with relative ease. The defense got pressure on the front end and the secondary came together when it mattered most. It’s easily their most impressive win of the season, and gives the fan base more hope than they’ve had since before the Patriots loss. Let’s start where it matters most – with what helped secure the W.

The Good

Let’s start with the defense. The front four had their best game of the season. By a lot. After the game, it was said that they made a point of staying in their rush lanes during practice in the week leading up to the game. It worked. Pressuring Mahomes on over 50% of drop backs, hitting him more than he ever has been hit in his career, and holding him to his lowest completion percentage of his career. They are directly responsible for making the Chiefs offense look clunky.

But, it wasn’t because Mahomes didn’t have time to throw. There were plenty of opportunities where he had more than enough time to get a pass off. The Bills secondary stepped up to shut those opportunities down, though. Adding Maxwell Hairston and Jordan Hancock into the secondary has breathed new life into the defense. The secondary looks faster, more athletic, and more cohesive overall as a result. This contributed massively to the defensive success in this game. And it’s something that Bills fans will be clamoring to see more of in the future.

The offense. James Cook did James Cook things. The guy is an animal. From where I was sitting, you could see the holes in the line clearly. There were times where there were no holes visible, and somehow Cook still found space for five extra yards. Another super impressive outing by Cook.

Allen came to life. Not completely to MVP form, but good enough considering his weapons. He and Dalton Kincaid continue to build their relationship, resulting in Kincaid blossoming into the player that we’d hoped he’d be when the Bills drafted him. Allen looks his way often, and it’s clear that him and Khalil Shakir are his first two options every time he drops back. He seemed significantly more comfortable than he has in weeks past when he drops back. Which is extremely impressive to have happen in what has so far been the biggest game of the Bills season.

The Bad

Allen is still turning down running options. He is definitely holding it back. There were multiple times throughout that game where he had a scramble option and turned it down. The worst of which being on a fourth and three early in the game where the running lane opened, and he instead threw a ten yard in, that resulted in an incomplete pass and turnover on downs. It’s not a stretch to say he’s saving it for the playoffs. But the opportunities are there now.

Part of that comes from the fact that the receivers are still struggling. The few times that Allen did scramble outside of the pocket, he was having trouble seeing anybody open. From witnessing it in person, I will say it’s because the receivers were blanketed. It’s still abundantly clear that the Bills need help at that position more than any other.

The coaching staff had a few questionable decisions as well. I should be clear here; overall, I thought they had a great game. However, recent games have made the few mistakes that they did make stand out more than normal. It’s because they keep making the same ones over and over. Two of them that stood out most to me were the timeout before the field goal, and a third and ten screen to Shakir that went nowhere. Both are trends for this staff. Taking unnecessary timeouts because his team wasn’t ready in situations where that won’t affect the outcome of the game is something that McDermott has been notorious for. Similarly, screen passes in situations that don’t warrant a screen pass is something that Brady has been notorious for. We can keep hoping they fix it, even though they likely won’t.

My Take

This win was huge. Especially after a Colts loss the Steelers. It not only keeps us squarely in the division race, but squarely in the race for the one seed as well. I still need to see some movement before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Receiver is the glaring need. Last week, I had safety as the secondary need. I’m downgrading that once again. I’d like to see a defensive end or defensive tackle after the injuries to Ed Oliver and Michael Hoecht. Keep the pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, and watch your young secondary go to work.

Week 9 Preview: Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo looks for redemption in Orchard Park as Mahomes and Kelce return to town.

Here it is, in Week 9. The game that everyone circles on the calendar every season. The game that is supposed to be an annual showdown of perennial NFL heavyweights. The second of three games that I was actually willing to go to this season.

Yet, it feels different this year. I’m significantly more nervous about this game than I have been in years past. To be clear, I always have nerves heading into this matchup. But most years, it’s a nervous excitement. This year feels almost like it did in 2020 – where the Chiefs had a dominant offense and the Bills have to prove that they belong.

I’d love to tell you to cue up Shout and Mr. Brightside. But I haven’t gotten there, yet.

Stopping the Chiefs

This has been the biggest concern for anybody that has faced the Chiefs this season. Their offense has been a machine. It has not been broken like it was the previous two years. And stopping them – let alone slowing them down – has been next to impossible.

They feature five wide receivers that the Bills would like to have just one of – and that doesn’t even include Travis Kelce or Noah Gray – and Patrick Mahomes seems more willing to scramble than ever.

Two weeks ago, I would have called this an impossible task. The Bills defense looked like it had nothing but holes on it. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t get to the quarterback, and receivers were finding gaps in the zone on a regular basis. Now, I have a little more hope.

The defense looked like it had a bit more pop in last weeks game against the Carolina Panthers. The returns of Maxwell Hairston, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi gave the defense life. The deployment of rookie safety Jordan Hancock, when paired up with Cole Bishop, made the back end of the defense look considerably faster. And the emergence of rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker made running the ball against this team difficult for the first time all season.

Still, the sample size of the defense stepping up is small. One game, even. It results in fans of the Bills cautiously approaching this game with even the slightest bit of optimism. It may have to be the track meet that we’ve all grown accustomed to in this matchup over the years.

The Offense Needs to Show Up

This has been the first time this season that many of us have felt this way. The offense needs to show up and show up big. It’s very rare that a team can win a game the previous week 40-9 and have the running back rush for 200+ and the fan base somehow feels worse.

This is where the passing game needs to fire. It would be great if the running game did, too. But this is where Josh Allen needs to look like Josh Allen. Nothing would ignite that stadium like another 30 point performance where Allen picks apart a Chiefs defense. It would inspire more confidence than we’ve seen all season. And it might be completely necessary in order to walk out with a victory.

The path to success here doesn’t seem like a difficult one for the Bills, on paper. The Bills love to run short pass plays, which will play to their favor in this matchup. If there is a weak point on the Chiefs defense, it’s defending swing passes to the opponents running backs. And if the Bills can find success there, along with passing to Shakir and Kincaid, it will burst the running game wide open and allow James Cook to build on the already incredible season that he’s having.

It sounds great in theory. But, this is still a Steve Spagnuolo led defense, who tends to find answers for his teams weaknesses. Look for him to send multiple blitz packages at Allen, and dare the Bills receiving options to get open fast enough for Allen to beat them.

My Take

I have to be honest here, this game scares me. The Chiefs have the ability to suck the life out of that stadium early. And if they manage to do that, watch out. If the Bills can manage some early stops though – brace yourself, it’s going to be a wild one. A couple of key stops, as well as involving James Cook more in the passing game, could just result in seventy thousand Bills fans singing Mr. Brightside at the end of the game.

Prediction

I don’t know how to do this without sounding doom and gloom. This is a game that I can see going one of two ways – the game is a nail biter and coin flip, or the Chiefs win big. I don’t see an in between. And I hope I’m wrong. I’d much rather be partying during a Buffalo route of the Chiefs.

Kansas City 37, Buffalo 31